This week, Erin and Aaron talk about Erin’s deeply-reported story on a study that implied most unhoused people living on the streets of Spokane shouldn’t be here, and why we need to push back on narratives that undermine community care.

Read the full analysis here.

There's a simple story that

we're all used to hearing.

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There are people who aren't from here.

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They're taking our resources, and if we

just send them back where they came from,

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everything would be so much better here.

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That narrative is really comfortable

and seductive in some ways, and it's

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also the narrative at the heart of a

recent study by the Spokane Business

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Association that made claims around

how many people in Spokane are

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homeless and are actually from Spokane.

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A lot of news outlets in town reported

on this study and just blanket put

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the claims in their headlines with no

critical analysis of the study whatsoever.

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But not free range.

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We've got all the analysis

that you could want and more.

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So sit back, relax, and let's talk data.

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This is Free Range, a co-production

of KYRS and Range Media.

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I'm Aaron Hedge.

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I'm Aaron Sellers and the Aaron team.

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The dream team really, right.

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I'm making little heart hands.

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You can't see them, but I am.

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We're here today.

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Uh, uh, Luke and Val are out today.

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And we are here to talk about a really

important study about a study that

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was commissioned by a local business

association that says a lot of things

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about the local homelessness community.

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, It sure says a lot of things.

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That's right.

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And we're here to 'cause,

'cause Aaron has been.

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Obsessing of this story since,

uh, they were in New Orleans last

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week for an investigative editor

report as an editor's conference.

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Kind of a national like

investigative journalism conference

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when this study came out.

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And we're very interested

in breaking this down.

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Aaron has a story coming out

possibly this evening, question Mark,

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mark, possibly tomorrow morning.

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We're not exactly sure.

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It depends on the editing process.

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They've done, they've gone gangbusters

on the research on this story.

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Um, and yeah, we wanted to break

it down because we, we feel like

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at range that there's been some

coverage that's been really credulous

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of this story or, or of the study.

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And so, um, yeah, I guess, uh.

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Maybe we can just start out with

the scene, Aaron, and, and you,

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you, you had a heads up that the

story was coming was, was coming.

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You, you had talked to the

Spokane Business Association's

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leader, Gavin Cooley.

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Is he, is he, what's his title there?

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I can't remember.

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Well, he used to be the CEO,

but now I think he's like the

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strategic initiatives manager.

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Okay.

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But he's a, he's a kind of a higher up.

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He's, he's, he has a lot of

influence there and, um, I think

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there's only two employees, so yeah.

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Oh, wow.

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Okay.

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But yes.

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Can you talk about, just, just tell me

the scene where you, where you kind of

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like learned that the study had been

published and, um, and what the, what

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your initial reactions to it were.

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And what does it basically say?

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Let's, let's, let's start with

just like some table stakes.

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Yeah.

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Okay.

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So I was in New Orleans.

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I'm relaxing in my cold hotel room

because it's like so hot there,

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so sweaty, so hot heat dome,

heat dome season in New Orleans.

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And I, despite being off work, I like

to stay caught up on what's happening.

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So I check, you know, the headlines.

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I check the, the, the news

stations and I see a headline.

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Studies reveal over half of unhoused

move to Spokane after losing housing.

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And I realize that SBA a's study has been

published, I click open the story and it

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does a and, and who, who, who is the or

original, like publisher of this thing.

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Like that.

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Headline, what was the news

source was from Fox 28 and

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KHQ, both published the same.

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So TV news station, a TV news

station, and I click it open and

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it's just blanket reporting The

findings of this study, 50.2%

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of people aren't from

Spokane or first experienced

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homelessness outside of Spokane.

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It's just parroting the top

level findings from this study.

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Right.

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And I know about this study 'cause

a few months ago I got an email

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from service providers who sent me

a list of the questions that the

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SBA intended to ask on this survey.

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And they also sent me information

about the person conducting

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the survey, who is Dr.

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Robert Marbut.

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He was formerly called Trump's

Homelessness Czar back in Trump's

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first term, which meant he was

in charge of shaping and guiding

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a lot of the homelessness policy

coming outta the federal government

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during Trump's first term.

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This guy's also kind of made a name

for himself across the country.

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Uh, he does studies for local

governments or business interest groups.

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And I get the questions for the survey.

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And first of all, there's

like misspellings.

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Let's, let's talk about,

let's talk about Dr.

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Marba a little bit more.

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Like what is, uh.

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Let's talk about the rhetoric is, um,

like what are the, well, I think what's

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kind of what I wanted to talk is, is Dr.

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Marba the questions.

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Okay.

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Right?

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Yeah, totally.

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The questions, they just ask the

same question a bunch of different

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ways, basically, where were you born?

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How long have you been

in the city of Spokane?

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Where did you attend your

senior year of high school?

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Do you have family that lives in Spokane?

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What year did you first start

experiencing homelessness?

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What is the reason you came to Spokane?

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Where were you living when you first

started experiencing homelessness?

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Just like a lot of different ways to

ask the question, did you come here

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because you were homeless or were you

a Spokane resident that became homeless

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through some circumstance in your life?

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And I feel like that is rooted in a lot

of the rhetoric that comes out of Dr.

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Maritz's kind of ideology.

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There's two key things that I see with,

studies Mar has touched, or places Mar

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has advised on homelessness policy.

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The first big thing is that his central

thesis tends to be homeless people go

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to big liberal cities because these big

cities have homelessness services and

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people come from all over the country

to go to these places to get services.

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This is not a word for word quote.

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This is just sort of the, the

ideology simmering around the

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messaging he's putting out.

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That's the tenor.

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Right.

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And I, and I think that, like,

I think I, I do think there's

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a general perception of that.

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When I came to Spokane in 2021,

I heard a lot of that rhetoric.

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And, uh, Spokane is the biggest city

between Seattle and Minneapolis.

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Minneapolis, and, and it's, you know,

it's perceived to be this kind of center

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of services for, for unhoused folks.

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Right.

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It's definitely a

narrative that's pervasive.

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So, so talk to us about like,

what's going on in that narrative.

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Yeah.

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So look.

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I wanna spend my time

first debunking that.

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Sure.

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Right.

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Like we get these survey, this survey from

Marette that is like, look, everybody.

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We were right.

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More than half of people in Spokane

first experienced homelessness

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somewhere else and then came here.

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And that's like a scary fact that

sort of, if you already buy into that

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narrative that people are coming here

to get our resources and keeping us from

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properly using our resources to help the

homeless people that really deserve it.

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IE the homeless people that lived

here before, like that fact is that

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headline with no dissection is going

to be like a gold star for you.

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Oh my God.

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I was right.

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This survey backs it up.

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But then you look at the survey and

there's big issues with it, so it

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asks the question itself, right.

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Where were you when you first started

experiencing homelessness that

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fails to account for people who, for

example, experienced homelessness

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when they were a kid somewhere else?

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Right?

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Let's say you live in Minneapolis, you're

a 7-year-old, your mom's homeless for

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a little bit, you're homeless with her.

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Then you.

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Grow up, you go to college,

you go somewhere else,

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eventually you move to Spokane.

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You have a life of family here,

a job, and then circumstances

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change and you become homeless.

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When you take this survey, you'd have to

answer, I first experienced homelessness

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somewhere else, and you might think

I'm spinning kind of a, a yarn that

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just pokes holes in this for no reason.

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But most of the people who took

this survey had were older than 45.

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And so that's a lot of years, right.

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For somebody to have

experienced something.

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And then that's maybe actually the

more minor problem with the survey.

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The bigger one is sample size.

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Well, I think let's, let's, let's

dwell on that just for a minute.

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Like, I think, I think the point of what

you're saying is like that question does

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not account for a lot of, a lot of, a

lot of potential circumstances that could

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exist in a person's life between mm-hmm.

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When they first experie experiences

experienced homelessness and.

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You know their current situation.

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Right.

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Okay.

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Yeah.

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Sorry, go ahead.

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So not only does the, the

question not account for that,

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but they're extrapolating this

data from 230 ish responses.

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I say ish, the numbers wishy-washy here.

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One News station reported 2 31 News

station reported two 60 a source,

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who was a volunteer there, told me

that they got almost 400 surveys

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and then threw a hundred out.

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Today.

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I was finally able to get Dr.

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Mart on the phone via text message, and

he told there was somewhere between 230

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and 235 surveys that they used and they

threw out between 30 and 35 surveys

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for not answering all the questions.

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Which that answers opens up another

question for me, which is like, why

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can't you tell me the exact number?

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But we don't need to dive into that.

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Sure.

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And he's like convinced that

this is accurate, right?

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He's telling me that this has a 95%

like he's con a 95% confidence rate

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because he says he drove around with

volunteers and they did a grid search

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of downtown where they pointed out

every single person they saw sitting

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downtown that they thought was homeless.

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And that number added up to 403 people.

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So they're saying, we got surveys

from 230 ish people that we use to

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extrapolate this data, and that's

over half of the homeless population

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because the homeless population is 403.

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We saw them.

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That's an estimate.

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So our confidence rate here, you know,

we got really good data and there's so

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many problems with that, that I needed

so many words to unpack and that I'm so

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disappointed that some of these other TV

news stations that covered it took zero

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words to ask any of these questions.

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What is, I'm, I'm really

interested and I was reading.

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The copy that you have down,

which is currently being

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edited what is a grid search?

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What does that mean?

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So the term, at least how he's

using it, comes from a place that

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did missing children surveys or

like, looked for missing children.

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They did like a grid search to try

to find missing children in an area.

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He didn't go into this methodology.

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He just has a one line referencing it.

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And then I went through their website.

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It's now defunct, the institute that did

it and, and looked at at what they did.

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But what he told me they did is

they get in a car and they've got

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volunteers sitting on one side of

each car and they drive back and forth

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in a grid downtown Spokane going,

there's a homeless person over there.

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If you're on the right side of the

car, you're like, oh, there's two

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homeless people sitting over there.

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He says they took pictures of each

homeless person so that they could compare

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and make sure that they were unique.

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One of the volunteers who was in the car

for at least an hour told me that all

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he was doing was pointing at people and

saying, there's a homeless person there.

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And then, but the person said, no

pictures, just that they didn't say that.

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They took pictures.

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He said all he was doing was pointing

at people and saying, there's

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two homeless people over there.

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I see another two.

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And this is again, failing to account

for the fact that they're just.

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Driving around looking at people

that they think look homeless.

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There's not a control for that.

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Right?

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Right.

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Like they said, you know, if you

were, they're assuming people who look

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homeless are homeless, are homeless.

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Yeah.

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Okay.

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And then they're using that to

estimate the amount of unsheltered

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homeless people in Spokane.

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But then the surveys that they actually

went out and got like 60 ish or more

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were from sheltered individuals.

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So now we're mixing two

different populations.

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'cause if you want a survey about

unsheltered people, and you're

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saying, we got surveys from 250 or

235 of the 403 unsheltered people,

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I still have issues with that.

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But at least you're comparing

apples to apples when you say,

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okay, I've got 253 responses.

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And some of them are from

people who are sheltered.

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And that tells you everything you need to

know about unsheltered people and makes

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up this portion of the total population.

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Now you're just looking at apples and

oranges and you're probably listening

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to this saying, wow, that's too many

math words, and I don't like this.

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And I'm gonna tell you I've

spent too much time with math

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words and I don't like it either.

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But somebody had to do it because

we can't just accept blanket

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studies with no methodology,

methodology attached, no raw data.

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I had to go begging for any of these

numbers because everything I was

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finding in other sources either had

no raw numbers attached or reporting

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different raw numbers for survey size.

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This is crazy.

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Who did you go begging to?

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Dr.

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Robert Mart.

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Okay.

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I could have gone to Gavin Cooley.

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I don't think he would've answered me.

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I think I burned that bridge last

time I was reporting on this when

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I was asking questions because you,

you interviewed Gavin Mart when you

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knew the study was gonna happen?

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Yeah.

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It was like the day before they

started conducting surveys.

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Mm-hmm.

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And what did, what did Gavin tell you?

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Well, if you give me two seconds, I can

tell you exactly what Gavin told me.

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Okay.

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Uh, I think Aaron has a, an audio file

queued up for us to, to listen to.

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I do.

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Um, if it works every time

we play a, we're never sure.

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We're not radio people.

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Folks, if we're not pulling punches

here, how much money are you

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spending to essentially replicate

data that's already been collected?

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How much money did this cost?

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Aaron, why do you think that's

even, I, you're kind of like the

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city council member saying, Gavin,

why at 5:00 AM aren't you handing

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out brochures and handing out food?

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You don't think it's relevant to

ask how much money you're spending

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on this When the city has just

completed their point in time count

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that asks largely the same questions.

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Aaron?

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I don't think, no, I don't

think it's relevant at all.

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Are you suggesting we should only be

giving money to help with homelessness?

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In which case, how much are you

giving you personally of your salary?

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Are you giving the help with

homelessness because, you know,

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it could be going that way?

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I'll tell you if you answer the question.

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Yeah, yeah.

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Um, no, I'm not, I'm not gonna answer

the question, Aaron, because it,

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it, it has no bearing whatsoever

on what we're talking about we,

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how we spend money in that fashion.

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Okay.

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So he ended the interview shortly after,

if you can't tell from the, the direction

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and range has not range has not been

able to speak to Gavin since I've,

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I've requested interviews from Gavin.

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Luke has an interview request out today.

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Yeah.

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Uh, and we don't, we don't know

what the result of that is.

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And what's funniest, I

mean, two things about this.

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First.

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I've been texting with Dr.

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Mart all day today and I sort

of saved the question that I was

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worried about for last, right?

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I got all the answers that I knew I needed

and then I asked that same question.

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How much did it cost for

you to run this survey?

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It's been about an hour

and he hasn't responded.

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And we were responding back and forth.

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So I don't, I don't know that

I'm gonna get an answer from Dr.

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Margaret either my text message.

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Yeah.

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But one of the things you hear me

talking about in this clip is why are

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we spending money to replicate data?

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And I think this is the interesting

counterpoint that I have now seen one

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TV news article that at least does

reference like, oh, the city has issues

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with this because they ran their own

point in time count survey and it

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found something completely different.

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So I do wanna talk about that

point in time count survey.

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Yeah, please can, can you, can you

actually explain to us what point

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in time data is and Yeah, yeah.

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Obviously, like how those numbers

stack up against the SBA study.

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Yes.

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So the point in time count is a count

that is supposed to be conducted

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in cities across the country if you

want to be eligible to receive HUD

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dollars from the federal government,

uh, the housing Urban Development

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Housing Urban Urban Development.

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Yeah.

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I always forget what that It's a, it's

a federal agency that basically oversees

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housing in the United States and sets

regulations and also provides funding

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to local municipalities, counties to

provide housing to, to people who need it.

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Yeah.

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So in order to get that funding,

you have to do point in time counts.

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You get your individual city data, and

then it also contributes to a larger

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national picture of homelessness data.

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Uh, this happens every, I think it's

usually like the end or middle of January.

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And I, was able to look over the

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We'll be getting 20, 25 data very shortly.

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Basically, with everything happening

at the federal government, they

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have been extremely slow to

get results back to the city.

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So we aren't getting the results from

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problem in any federal government program.

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Yes, which affects local, local police.

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Uh, but the 2024 numbers, which had

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that there was about 80% of people

who were homeless on the streets of

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Spokane, who were from Spokane County.

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There was another 5% who were

people from Washington, so not

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Spokane County, but from the state.

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And then the remaining 15% was mostly made

up of people from the Pacific Northwest.

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So there's a few outliers of like, oh,

somebody, you know, thought they had a job

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lined up here and flew in from New Jersey.

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But for the most part, that remaining

15% is people from Montana, Idaho,

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Oregon, places who are adjacent to us.

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And that actually lines

up with trends nationally.

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It would actually be really

weird if Spokane fit the pattern

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that Maritz's saying we fit.

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Because nationally, and this is like

one of the data pieces I looked at, was

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a study of veterans, homeless veterans

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over a hundred thousand veterans and the

places that they were accessing services.

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And it found those numbers basically

lined up almost identically 80.

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5% of homeless veterans stayed

close to the place they originally

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accessed services for homelessness.

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So you're living in Miami,

you become homeless there.

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That's the first place you access services

and you continue to access services.

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Very close to that.

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Another 15% were doing what they

called migration, which is traveling

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large distances to other places in

the country and accessing homeless

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services at Veterans Affairs

offices quite distant from the place

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they originally access services.

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So in general, Spokane's data

had a larger sample size.

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The question I thought was much more

controlled than asking somebody,

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like, where did you go to home?

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Like, where did you go to high school?

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Where were you first homeless?

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The question that the City of Spokane

survey asked was, did you live in Spokane

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County before you became homeless?

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Yes or no?

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If no, where did you come from?

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Specify city and state if yes,

specify the neighborhood you lived in.

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So that's pretty specific data asking, did

you live here before you became homeless?

398

It could get better.

399

Um, I talked to a data scientist,

or technically I think his title

400

is that he's a professor of housing

and homelessness policy who looks

401

at housing and homelessness data.

402

And he, you know, told me that yeah,

the, the HUD question could get even more

403

specific, but it is significantly better

than the question that was asked by Dr.

404

Maritz's study.

405

So there's, there's this, this difference

between what the SPA study or the study

406

that was commissioned by SPA said and

what Spokane City Data say you spoke

407

with a, a homelessness data expert.

408

I don't know their name yet.

409

Yeah.

410

Let me find his title.

411

Did they, what did they say to you?

412

Okay.

413

So, yeah, take your time.

414

Sorry, I'm looking through again.

415

This document is lengthy.

416

His name was Dr.

417

Dennis Culhane and he is a

homeless and housing researcher

418

at the University of Pennsylvania.

419

He previously served as director

of research at the National

420

Center on Homelessness among

421

Honestly, one of the most interesting

things he told me was that while the

422

City of Spokane point in time count

study is, it has a bigger sample size,

423

the questions were more specific.

424

Both surveys have some issues

when we try to make predictive

425

claims about the characteristics

of unhoused people in Spokane.

426

And primarily that issue comes

because the surveys are what's

427

called cross-sectional surveys as

opposed to longitudinal surveys.

428

So I'm gonna do my best to explain

the difference here, and then

429

I'm gonna give you a clip of Dr.

430

Col ha adding some more nuance here.

431

And we are, keep in mind, we

are not data scientists, so

432

we are relying entirely on Dr.

433

Col Hane.

434

But Aaron's been.

435

Going after this.

436

Really smart.

437

So yeah, let's just pair

it whatever you can.

438

Okay, so a cross sectional survey looks

at a cross section of a population.

439

Okay?

440

You go out on one day and you were

like, I mean with the homeless people

441

example, it's like, okay, I went

out and on Tuesday I saw 25 homeless

442

people and I talked to five of them.

443

And so I looked at that cross section of

the larger cross section of people that

444

I saw, and then that is supposed to be

representative of the population of a

445

whole, which did not encompass people I

didn't see, or people I didn't talk to.

446

It's a kinda gives you a limited picture.

447

And some of the issues with that,

specifically when you're talking

448

about homelessness is that you're

more likely to see on the streets.

449

People who are chronically

experiencing homelessness, people

450

who are experiencing it in that

moment may be camping in their car.

451

They might be sleeping with their friend.

452

They might be at the

library applying for jobs.

453

They might be any number of

places besides the street.

454

And of course, people who are chronically

experiencing homelessness may also be

455

any number of those things, but it's

just really hard to make statements

456

about the characteristics of a group

when you're looking at a cross section

457

that mixes different populations,

like sheltered versus unsheltered or

458

chronically homeless, versus this is

someone's first time being homeless.

459

And both of these surveys

looked at a cross section.

460

So, so, so we, we broadcast from

the Spokane Public Library and

461

often unhoused people hang out here.

462

They try to, like, they, they use their

libraries, resource resources to search

463

for jobs and seeing people printing

out resumes or all kinds of stuff here.

464

Applying for veterans' benefits.

465

Those people, many of whom could be

doing better than their neighbor,

466

but still be unhoused could walk

out and be, uh, be counted among the

467

homeless population at any given time.

468

Right.

469

But they're not this, they're

not in the same situation, right?

470

And so, like, these are all the

little nuances that make a cross

471

section survey complicated.

472

And even when I talk to the city

about the point in time count data,

473

they'll tell you right up front, yeah,

our data from a point in time count.

474

It's not predictive in

the way we want it to be.

475

It's an indicator, but it doesn't

tell the complete story, and we have

476

to do other data collection to tell

that complete story where we look at

477

the survey from SBA and they're making

very definitive claims about what this

478

says about homeless people in Spokane.

479

The city also has the other

kind of survey that Dr.

480

Cohan mentioned, the longitudinal survey.

481

And so that's something that

looks at a group of people over

482

a sustained period of time.

483

So you take one group of people and you're

looking at them for like a year, and

484

then you can maybe make some predictive

claims about their characteristics.

485

It's a lot easier.

486

Than to try to model off

of a tiny cross section.

487

And the city does have longitudinal data.

488

They have it in a couple of ways.

489

They have a longitudinal systems

analysis that they published publicly.

490

And what we found from that was that

over 7,000 unique individuals in

491

Spokane accessed homelessness services.

492

That means that there's, more than 7,000

people who needed services this year, 22%

493

of those people have exited homelessness

to permanent or transitional housing.

494

And the average length of stay

or experience of homelessness

495

cumulative days was 99 days.

496

So like three months.

497

That's all stuff we found out from the

city's longitudinal systems analysis.

498

And then they have their own private

data collection called HMIS and that

499

I wasn't able to dig through because

it collects a lot of pieces of data

500

that are confidential or private.

501

It's not, easily down like

healthcare data and stuff like that.

502

Yeah.

503

And like social security numbers.

504

Mm-hmm.

505

And birthdays and like stuff that

people give them when they enter like

506

a shelter or a service that the city

provides, like an eviction defense.

507

All of these things that are wraparound

services or homelessness services,

508

the city collects in a much more

confidential data pool that isn't.

509

A nice easy graph for public

consumption and city spokesperson.

510

Aaron Hutt told me that their

longitudinal analysis across all of

511

this data that they've been collecting

for years reveals the same pattern, the

512

same, like roughly the same numbers,

that the point in time count shows.

513

80 to 85% of people are, quote

unquote, from here, either Spokane

514

County or Washington State.

515

Around 15% are not, but are still from

our geographic corner of the country.

516

Did I bore you?

517

I'm so sorry.

518

No, no, no, no.

519

Um, do you, one of the things,

Cohan talking about it or, uh, no.

520

One of the things that I was thinking

about while you were talking was, um, so,

521

so all of this, all of this data is like,

you know, there, there's ways to track

522

it in that are more accurate than others.

523

Mm-hmm.

524

But homelessness seems, from our

conversation and from all of my

525

experiences going out and just like

talking to people on the streets, which

526

I've done a number of times sometimes

with you, um, is that homelessness

527

seems really difficult to track.

528

And I think one of, one of the things

that like sticks out to me in what you

529

were saying is yesterday I was at a,

uh, I was at an event that was put on

530

by Revived Spokane which is kind of just

like a, it's an advocacy organization.

531

And, and they were able through

relationships with the Empire House,

532

uh, the Empire health Foundation

and the State Department of Commerce

533

to, uh, absorb a $4 million grant to

establish housing in three small yeah,

534

they're just like houses that were

renovated by, by construction firm that

535

they hired to basically move people.

536

Who were originally housed at camp

Hope, which was a, a big homeless

537

encampment that lasted about a year

and a half between Spokane and Spokane

538

Valley on on, on state property.

539

Try to try to get those people through an

initial program and into like permanent

540

housing and with programs like that

being funded and then defunded the

541

landscape shifts really dramatically.

542

So it just, it just seems like, like a

lot of these numbers, like there, there,

543

there are ways to like reliably study

this, but like none of it is exact and

544

there, there's a spectrum of accuracy.

545

Does that sound right to you?

546

Yes.

547

I think there is a spectrum of accuracy

and I also think, you know, some of what

548

you talked about, about getting on the

ground and actually talking to people.

549

I feel a little bit bad even doing data

analysis of this because it feels like

550

it's losing all of the humanity, but all

of people's humanity was stripped away

551

by this survey itself, and I don't think

that the city survey necessarily did strip

552

people's humanity away in that fashion

because it asked so many other holistic

553

questions like, are you a veteran?

554

Do you have a substance use disorder?

555

Do you have a chronic health condition?

556

Instead of making assumptions that

people who are unhoused have a

557

substance abuse disorder or a chronic

health disorder, like those were.

558

Built into SBAs study and some of

the way that they talked about it

559

in their critical finding stuff.

560

The assumptions you're talking about.

561

The assumptions, yeah.

562

Were built in there.

563

And the city survey asks people what

reasons led to them becoming homeless.

564

Was it an eviction, was it a

mental health problem, a uh, a

565

access to transportation issue?

566

Was it COVID?

567

Was it lack of access

to affordable housing?

568

And then it also asks them what

services they use from the city and

569

what barriers might exist to using

the services that are available.

570

And of course, any three page or one

page survey is not going to get at

571

the heart of somebody's humanity.

572

And you need to be willing to do

the qualitative data or the Yeah,

573

the qualitative data analysis

too, that's actually talking to

574

people about their experiences and.

575

I think I, I'm kind of going off

track here, but I just, it's okay.

576

I have been in my little hole, my

little data analysis hole, right.

577

Pouring over numbers and

studies and statistics.

578

It's really, it's really fun to

walk into the newsroom and watch

579

Aaron Sellers work on this study.

580

'cause they're very excited about it.

581

Pounding Red Bull hyping frantically

at my computer with 36 tabs

582

of homelessness studies open.

583

Right?

584

And it's important for me to do that

because a lot of people have just

585

accepted this data at face value.

586

But what's missing in my story

and what's missing in all of these

587

discussions about this is perspective

from people who are on the street.

588

You can talk to one person who

might tell you they moved here from

589

somewhere else, and you can talk to

another person who will tell you,

590

I lived here with my wife until she

died and I didn't have enough income

591

anymore to be able to keep my house.

592

I lost my house and it all

went downhill from there.

593

And those are the kinds of stories

that you're not gonna see in a.

594

A survey like this, or in a 500 word

TV news story about this survey.

595

And unfortunately, you're not gonna

find it in my 5,000 word story because I

596

needed all 5,000 of those words to debunk

some of the issues with this survey.

597

And so I do wanna acknowledge that that's

a, that's a flaw in my own reporting too.

598

Well, I think, I think one of

the challenges of reporting on

599

homelessness is that, you can go and

talk to five or six people on the

600

street, spend several hours doing so.

601

Their experiences are not going to

mirror other homeless folks experiences.

602

And we, we had I, I think we kind of, this

was before my time at Range, but Range

603

really kind of owned the Camp Hope story.

604

Our, our former reporter, Carl Seager

Segerstrom spent uncounted hours at

605

Camp Hope gathering people's stories.

606

And, but even that is not a complete

picture of homelessness in Spokane.

607

It's, it's a very complex.

608

Issue that, that nobody

can distill in one story.

609

So yeah, that, that's, that, I think

that's a flaw in all reporting.

610

Just it's an inherent

flaw of communication.

611

Um, if you wanna know more about cross

sections versus longitudinal systems

612

analysis, I do have a clip of the

professor talking about that, but he, I'll

613

let you decide if that's boring or not.

614

I don't think that's boring.

615

I'm a nerd, so play it.

616

Okay.

617

Seeing a study.

618

Um, but both of them have a limitation in

that when you are doing a cross-sectional

619

sample, meaning a sample you're

getting on a given point in time.

620

Okay.

621

There's, there's tremendous bias in

the sample by nature of how it is

622

designed, which means that within

that sample you are combining.

623

People who have been homeless for a

long period of time, people who are

624

newly homeless, people who are just

starting their homelessness, and we

625

don't know what their duration will be.

626

So because it is a cross section,

it's impossible to interpret.

627

What the relationship is between

any of the characteristics you're

628

observing and the what caused their

homelessness or what has caused their

629

homelessness to persist, which by

the way are two separate phenomenons.

630

We have causal processes that lead to

homelessness, and we have separate causal

631

processes that lead to homelessness

to persist for people to not exit.

632

Most people exit homelessness quickly.

633

If we had a longitudinal sample, for

example, we see about a third of the

634

homeless population usually resolves

within two weeks, and you get about

635

half the population exits homelessness.

636

In about six to eight weeks.

637

Mm-hmm.

638

So, but, but those people only

show up as a tiny portion of the

639

homeless population on a given day.

640

The, the given day population is

represented as much as five times more

641

the long-term homeless than they would

be represented in an annual picture.

642

When you look at these point in time

surveys, they tend to look like most

643

of the people are chronically homeless.

644

They've been homeless for

very long periods of time.

645

They have very complex service needs.

646

And, um, and you, you're, you're

inclined to think that that's

647

what causes homelessness, when

in fact it's, it's different.

648

So let me give you the

analogy would be COVID.

649

There, we know that there's a certain

conditions, we know COVID is caused by.

650

An infection and we know

that there are risk factors

651

associated with that infection.

652

It is a separate thing that happens

of who ends up dying from COVID

653

or who ends up hospitalized or

in, you know, on a ventilator,

654

uh, or who gets long-term COVID.

655

Those are very distinct subpopulations.

656

Most people who get COVID have a

light, have a light experience,

657

and they resolve quickly.

658

You see what I mean?

659

Yeah.

660

So very different samples.

661

And so when you're sampling on a

given day, it's very difficult, if

662

not impossible, to really interpret

what these characteristics mean

663

with respect to risk for becoming

homeless versus remaining homeless.

664

That's fascinating.

665

I, I think that like.

666

So when I go out on the street, which,

I, I take the bus, um, I usually

667

walk to the office from the Central

Station in Spokane, the, the SCA Plaza.

668

I see, I see people who I recognize a lot

and it, it just seems like that's just

669

any, any, it seems like, from what

he's saying is like, and, and from

670

our conversation today, like any,

any one person's experience of

671

homelessness is not a representative

picture of, of how it works.

672

'cause I, like, I have, I form a lot

of really strong opinions about the

673

way homelessness works in Spokane

based off my own experiences.

674

You're a lot deeper in the data than I

am 'cause you're a city hall reporter.

675

And yeah, this is it's kind of a

humbling experience hearing that like.

676

Yeah, go ahead.

677

Yeah, and I think the thing that I've

been, when I emerged from my little data

678

hall and I realized I had to write a

conclusion to this story, I was thinking

679

about, okay, so this is an issue, right?

680

The way that this survey was conducted,

the way that it was subsequently

681

reported on in a really simplistic

way that just parroted the statistics

682

with no critical analysis of them.

683

But I think it's emblematic of a larger

problem, and that's that there is a very

684

seductive and insidious narrative,

a story that we've all been

685

told and continue to be told.

686

That's really tempting that our community.

687

Is great.

688

We are resourced, we can

take care of each other.

689

But unfortunately, there's people who come

here who aren't part of that community,

690

and they're a drain on our resources.

691

They're taking resources from the

people who are from here, who belong

692

here, who deserve those resources.

693

And if we just send those people who

came here away, back to where they

694

came from, they'll be happier and will

have enough resources to take care of

695

everybody who really needs them here.

696

And that's a really seductive narrative.

697

And I, I think it's one that

we see in a lot of campaigns.

698

It's one that we see

nationally with homeless data.

699

Dr.

700

Robert Cohan told me that he has you

know, he's hardly ever looked at a

701

community and seen a different narrative.

702

Every community in this country that.

703

Thinks that they're doing the greatest

thing on homelessness and that

704

they're a magnet for homelessness.

705

I scarcely find anyone who does not

claim that we're so good to the homeless.

706

Everyone wants to come here.

707

Col ha said.

708

So that's a thing that's pretty pervasive

across the country, and it's also pretty

709

pervasive when we think about how we

talk about immigrants and immigration.

710

The United States is great.

711

It's a beautiful place to live.

712

We have so many resources and everybody

here would be happy and have enough

713

money to live and thrive if only

people from other places would stop

714

coming here and taking our resources.

715

I, I am very familiar with his narrative.

716

And I've, I've noticed the, uh,

I, I mean mostly in Spokane,

717

like specifically to Spokane.

718

I'm familiar with his narrative due

to your reporting on city council

719

meetings where, business representatives

show up and they, they speak at the

720

lectern and they, they lodge their

concerns with the city council.

721

And I think that that's like,

I think that's really it.

722

It's a resonant concern with just average

folks who are like, maybe they're housed,

723

but they're still having a rough time,

like paying their rent or whatever.

724

Mm-hmm.

725

Those folks could become

homeless at any moment.

726

I know that, like for me, I spent two

years getting my getting my master's

727

degree here, wondering if I was gonna

be able to pay my rent next month.

728

Um, and if I didn't, I would be

homeless and my wife along with

729

me, and I, so, so I, I, I think

that, that, that is something that

730

tends to resonate with people.

731

The thing that I'm kind of wondering

about, and I don't know if you have, I.

732

Direct insight about this from all of

the observations that you made, the deep

733

reporting that you've done, the interviews

that you've done with, with business

734

officials or like, you know, people

who represent the business community.

735

What is the, like, why do they do this?

736

Like, what is the incentive

for, for the business community

737

to, to advance this narrative?

738

I don't know that I have any answers,

but I do have some questions.

739

Okay.

740

You have to think about

source here, right?

741

Yeah.

742

So.

743

The SBA is the group that's

paying to put this survey on.

744

They won't tell me how much money

they're spending on this survey.

745

What I do know is that the SBA is founded

by somebody, Larry Stone, who gives

746

millions of dollars to conservative

political campaigns in the Spokane

747

region, who creates documentaries like

Curing Spokane that are supposed to

748

convince you that drugs and people who

aren't from here are ruining our city.

749

He spends thousands of dollars to put

up billboards to convince you that

750

it's gonna be the end of the world.

751

If we put a bus lane on Division

Street, he has all of the money to

752

do that, to do any of those things.

753

Gavin Cooley makes over a

hundred thousand dollars a year.

754

I'm fairly certain.

755

And the people who are part of SBA are

prominent business owners, developers

756

who have built some of the, the biggest

buildings in Spokane that you've seen

757

who are currently working on developing

large portions of Spokane, renting those

758

buildings out, making money off of you.

759

And so my question, I don't have an

answer as to why they're the purveyor

760

of this narrative, but if you have all

of these resources, if you're one of

761

the richest people in Spokane, people

are gonna be looking at you, right?

762

Wondering, why do you

deserve to have all of that?

763

Why should you, as a developer,

get to jack my rent up when I'm

764

the one that might be homeless?

765

Why do you get to own all of these things

when I'm living paycheck to paycheck,

766

when I don't know if I'm gonna survive?

767

And sometimes it's easier for people who

have those resources to spend a ton of

768

those resources to convince you that the

issue is not the money that they have.

769

But the little bit of money that

you have that might be taken by

770

someone from somewhere else, it's

just it's a ma magician's trick,

771

a flourish of the handkerchief.

772

Look over here and don't look at what I'm

doing with my other hand behind my back.

773

And I don't know if I should even be

saying that to be completely honest, but

774

that's my question is should you trust

a survey that tells you people from not

775

here are the problem when they have the

money to be doing all of these things?

776

And you alluded to this earlier, but it

makes me think of the me, the meme that's

777

been going around on social media lately.

778

Probably more specifically in leftist

circles, but like, um, something

779

to the effect of, and I don't

remember the exact wording, but it's

780

something to the effect of they want

you to think that your problems.

781

Come from immigration rather, so, so

that you don't blame the billionaires.

782

Yeah.

783

And so it's, I would ask if

this falls into that trend.

784

Yeah.

785

And I will let anybody listening

to this make their own conclusions.

786

I also think kind of secondary,

I mean, it's part of the same

787

narrative, but I would be really

suspicious of anybody who tells you

788

that community needs to be narrow.

789

Any narrative that asks you to look at

somebody and say, they're not like us.

790

They're weird, they're different.

791

They don't deserve help,

they don't deserve resources.

792

I think we see that in

a lot of these stories.

793

I mean, like, I, I do think you're

right that it's at the heart of a lot

794

of the stories that I write is there's

a lot of really powerful narratives

795

that are trying to convince you that

in order to hold onto your stability.

796

There's an outside threat and we

just need to shut that outside

797

threat out of our community.

798

Whether that's trans people playing

sports who want to take your daughter's

799

trophy, and community will be so much

better if we just have it without them,

800

or whether it's, yeah, we should take

care of homeless people if they're really

801

from here and deserve your resources.

802

And our community will be stronger

if we just shut the people who

803

aren't from here out or immigration.

804

Those people who take care of your kids,

who show up to your neighborhood potlucks,

805

who would be there for you if you needed

them, your life would be better if you

806

just shut them out of your community.

807

If we isolated, if we shut down.

808

And what's so difficult about this is

I needed 5,000 words to debunk this.

809

I don't know how many people are

gonna read what I've written,

810

are gonna sift through the survey

analysis, are gonna take the time to

811

understand the issues of the data.

812

They needed very few words to say.

813

Over 50.2%

814

of people in Spokane first experienced

homelessness somewhere else.

815

And people seized on that and took

that as evidence that that very

816

tempting narrative is accurate and

they should keep holding onto it.

817

It's so heartbreaking and lazy that we

can so easily spread this propaganda

818

and it takes so much time and effort

and willingness to empathize and

819

understand and think critically to

do any debunking of the narrative.

820

That old adage, it's like,

821

I'm not sure if it was Mark Twain.

822

That's what I wanna say.

823

A lie goes around the world.

824

Can people here before, before the truth

has the chance to put their shoes on?

825

Can you talk about, so there's,

there's, there's some really interesting

826

little small anecdotes in this.

827

We've only got a, we've got about.

828

It's eight minutes left before

we need to start the close out.

829

Um, how do.

830

Dogs figure, I figure into this study.

831

Oh, I thought you were gonna

bring that up ages ago before

832

I had my very serious diatribe.

833

I'm trying to, I'm trying to

do these important questions

834

first in the interest of time.

835

Okay.

836

That's fair.

837

This is my favorite little

digression on this survey.

838

So I went through and I looked at all of

the sort of big claims that the survey

839

made without citing their sources.

840

And here's a quote of a, a claim

that the survey made compared

841

to prior Spokane observations.

842

In October, 2019, September, 2022 and

843

of dogs had increased noticeably.

844

Of note, most of the people

experiencing homelessness who

845

had dogs with them were women.

846

Increases in the number of dogs or

the size of dogs are often a future

847

indicator of increased levels of

violence on the street that was

848

just in there, no citation for like.

849

Proof that more dogs means more violence?

850

No.

851

Telling me where they got those

852

No.

853

Telling me even what those numbers are.

854

How many dogs did you

855

So, when I finally did get ahold of Mark,

it's, it's all based on vibes, right?

856

Vibes, the vibe of dog.

857

I don't know.

858

That was one of the first questions

that I had to get answered was

859

like, I need to know about the dogs.

860

Whether that's critically important

to the survey or not, it's gonna

861

bother me so much if I don't

get information on the dogs.

862

Well, I think it's illustrative to

the rigor, to the rigor of the study.

863

You know, like.

864

Yeah.

865

And so over text, he said that the

info about the dogs came from his

866

own previous visits to Spokane, where

he saw quote less than three dogs.

867

He did not specify the actual number.

868

So that could have been

one dog or two dogs.

869

I guess either of those would be

less than three, maybe a hot dog.

870

Um, he also did not say how many dogs

he saw this time or how big any of those

871

dogs were, or where he got the information

that dogs of any size are indicators

872

for increased levels of violence.

873

And when I asked him about his lack of

citations in general, 'cause there was

874

a lot, and I kind of went through at one

point and tried to pull out all of the

875

claims that were made without citations.

876

He said that lack of

citations was intentional.

877

Quote, I've never been asked by community

groups, agencies, cities, counties,

878

and states to provide citations.

879

That's crazy.

880

Right?

881

Well, I, I, I just, I just remember,

I, I remember taking classes as

882

a student and always being told

that I had to cite my sources.

883

And I remember writing stories for

editors whenever I made a claim,

884

I was asked to cite a source.

885

I, that's, that's anecdotal.

886

I feel like citing sources is important,

but apparently nobody ever asked them to.

887

The people who commissioned these studies

aren't worried about citing sources,

888

which it's also worth noting that he

didn't give me any of those sources.

889

Yeah, like I was asking.

890

Yeah, I didn't get any of 'em.

891

Of course I didn't, I didn't

exactly say like, give me all of

892

your sources, but I said, I noticed

like a noticeable lack of sourcing.

893

Is there a page I missed?

894

Was there something that

wasn't included in the report?

895

Where are your sources for this?

896

And he was just like,

nobody's ever asked me.

897

But yeah, you there was a scene in

the newsroom, I can't remember which

898

day it was, it was a couple days ago.

899

Time is a flat circle.

900

When you were just kind of go into

town on this story and you were ranting

901

about, um, because you're very passionate

about this, which is really commendable

902

about who in our newsroom would be

903

y you know, the implications of

this, of this study were, were

904

taken to their logical conclusion,

and the people who aren't supposed

905

to be here should be kicked out.

906

Like who in our newsroom?

907

So we've got five people.

908

We've got five people.

909

Well, we've got, we've got six people,

including our, our intern Clarine Cur.

910

True.

911

I didn't make clear intake the survey.

912

Clarin's also a college kid, so I

don't know how that would factor in.

913

We haven't analyzed Clarine yet.

914

We haven't an analyzed,

but everybody else you got.

915

But hey, our cross section

of five out of six was great.

916

99% accuracy.

917

Okay.

918

So none of us would count as from Spokane.

919

None of us would be able to answer

yes to all of these questions.

920

Luke has lived here his whole

life and Luke wouldn't be able to

921

answer yes to all these questions.

922

Okay.

923

But by here, what do you mean?

924

Exactly, that's the issue.

925

They just say Spokane in their survey.

926

There's no differentiation between

Spokane County and Spokane City.

927

And normally when people hear,

are you, were you born in Spokane?

928

They don't think Spokane County.

929

They think the city that's

a wiggle room in data.

930

Right.

931

So Luke, he's from like North Spokane,

outside of the city limits, like above me.

932

He lived in Elk for most of his childhood.

933

Yeah.

934

Yeah.

935

And so Luke would've to take this

survey, even though he's been here his

936

whole life, if he started experiencing

COVID and he would not be able to say

937

I was born in the city of Spokane,

he would not be able to say, family

938

brought me to the city of Spokane.

939

He would be able to say, I came here

because of a spouse, partner, or friend.

940

'cause I think he moved into Spokane,

or wait, no, he moved here for college,

941

which is not an option on this survey.

942

So he wouldn't be able to answer

any of these multiple choice options

943

as to why he came to Spokane.

944

He didn't go to high school here.

945

So even Luke, who's been in this area his

whole life would not count as from here.

946

I've been here for seven years.

947

I own a house.

948

If I were to become

unhoused tomorrow and Dr.

949

Robert Maric came up to me with this

survey on the street, I would have to say

950

that I have no family connections here.

951

I would have to say that I

went to high school in Idaho.

952

I would just say that I was

born in Lewiston, Idaho.

953

I would have to I came here

for college and stayed.

954

So I wouldn't have a great

reason for coming to Spokane.

955

And so by his own recommendations

in the survey, I would be

956

given a bus ticket back to.

957

To Idaho.

958

I dunno if it's the city I was born

in Lewiston, where I have no family,

959

or if it would be to the city of

Wii that has no homeless services.

960

But that is what the city

of Spokane should offer me.

961

If I was unhoused and took this

survey under his recommendations.

962

I came here from Texas in 2021

to pursue a master's degree.

963

I would also be, um, I mean if

that, if that was the logical

964

conclusion, I'd also be bused back.

965

We are at the end of our time,

so I'm gonna do the closeout.

966

Is there anything else

you wanna say real quick?

967

Real quick, like 20 seconds please.

968

When you see these simple headlines

about data and surveys, please

969

think more critically about it.

970

And whenever anybody is asking you to shut

people out of your definition of community

971

and who deserves help, please really

evaluate that before you jump to an easy,

972

simple conclusion that might make sense

of what you already know and feel nice.

973

But it's just not going to

make the world a better place.

974

All right, well, good work on this.

975

This is Free Range,