Full Time — The definitive weekly breakdown.

In This Episode:

• 📊 Match Review: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig (SofaScore Data Analysis)
• 🔎 Player Watch: Miguel Gutiérrez vs Antonio Nusa — Did they make the difference?
• 🔮 The Preview: RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H) & Predictions
• 💬 Fan Voice: Featured takes from shumi on X and Kenny in the Discord

Don’t Miss Out:

• 🏟️ The Digital Terrace: Don’t just watch — join the community. Our Discord is the digital equivalent of the standing area; it’s where we talk tactics, vent after a loss, and celebrate every goal 24/7. Grab your spot on the terrace here: https://discord.gg/jE6ZzwcCYu
• 📅 Next Livestream: RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt (MD5) — Sat 10/10, 18:30 CEST Red Bull Arena
• 📥 Get Involved: Send questions via socials or record an audio message on SpeakPipe to be played on-air.
• 🗣️ Join the Show: Want to represent your club or share your RBL take? Book a guest spot here: https://rbltalk.captivate.fm/booking
• ☕ Support the Show: Help us cover running costs here: https://rbltalk.captivate.fm/support

Partners & Credits:

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• 🔗 Affiliates: Captivate | Descript | Restream

🎵 Music: Andrii Poradovskyi (Pixabay)

Another top spiel, another one that got away.

2

Two-nil at the BI Arena.

3

And if you only looked at the

scoreline, you'd nod along and

4

think, "Okay, tight game away at

one of the best sides in the league.

5

It's one of those.

6

Move on."

7

But here's the thing.

8

I want to sit with you today.

9

Two-nil flattered us.

10

It genuinely did.

11

And somehow, at the very same time,

the referee had a first half he'll

12

want to quietly remove from his memory.

13

Both of those things are true at once,

and holding both in your head is the

14

only way, honest, to talk about this game

15

So that's what we're going to do.

16

We're going to be honest about

it, where this was lost, and I'll

17

tell you now, it wasn't in goal.

18

Whatever you've read on the timeline,

what the numbers actually say

19

about Miguel Gutierrez and Antonio

Nusa, because we called that duel

20

last episode and the result's in.

21

And then we turn the page

because Frankfurt are coming

22

to the Red Bull Arena.

23

And on paper, on paper, this is exactly

the kind of game we need right now.

24

This is RBL Talk.

25

Welcome back to RBL Talk, the independent

community-funded RB Leipzig podcast.

26

No agendas, no gatekeepers, just

tactics, the terrace, and the truth.

27

I'm Justin Crozer, coming to you

from the bottom of the world in

28

Adelaide, and this is episode 122.

29

Let me give you the running order

so you know where we're headed.

30

First up, the full postmortem

on Leverkusen away, match

31

day four, and I mean full.

32

We had the Sofascore data

crawling all over this one.

33

Every player, both keepers, the shot

maps, the momentum, and I'll walk

34

you through exactly what it reveals.

35

That includes our Player Watch result, the

Gutierrez-Mnusu duel we set last episode.

36

I'll tell you who won it, and this

is the interesting bit, why the loser

37

might actually be a reason for optimism.

38

Then, fan voice from the Digital Terrace.

39

Two cracking submissions this week,

and they could not be more different.

40

One's a sharp little one-liner

about the officiating.

41

One's a proper thoughtful essay, and

I'm going to give one of them a friendly

42

bit of pushback with the numbers to back

me up, because that's what we do here.

43

We don't just nod along.

44

And we look ahead, Frankfurt at home.

45

Straight after the international break,

I've got the preview data, a fresh Player

46

Watch duel for you to chew on, and a

score prediction built off the numbers.

47

Settle in wherever you

choose to listen to this one.

48

If you need to pause it now, now's

the time, because you're not going

49

to want to miss out on how the

downfall happened over the weekend.

50

Right.

51

Leverkusen.

52

Let's get into it.

53

Bayer Leverkusen two, RB Leipzig nil.

54

The Bayerina, Patrik Schick on

the stroke of halftime, Miguel

55

Gutiérrez just after the hour mark.

56

On the surface, a manageable defeat

away at a very, very good side.

57

Nobody's shocked.

58

But under the surface, we got outplayed.

59

And I wanna be careful with my

words here, because there's a

60

difference between two things.

61

We didn't get battered.

62

We got outplayed.

63

Battered is hiding and men against

boys job where you're hanging on.

64

That's not what this was.

65

Outplayed is subtler.

66

It's a side that's just that

little bit better than you in the

67

moments that matter, in the areas

that matter, and grinds you down.

68

That's what this was, and the data

draws that line really, really clearly.

69

So let's start where it counts,

with the expected goals.

70

Leverkusen, 2.19.

71

Us, 0.85

72

Now, if you're new to this show,

expected goals, XG, is just

73

a measure of chance quality.

74

Add up how likely every shot was

to go in, and that's your number.

75

Two point one nine says

Leverkusen created a hatful.

76

Nought point eight five says

we barely laid a glove on them.

77

And it gets darker.

78

Big chances.

79

The guilt edged you should score

these ones five to them, one to us.

80

Shots on target, six to three.

81

But here's the single number

that tells the whole story.

82

And I want you to really hear this one.

83

Expected goals on target.

84

Theirs was two point three six.

85

Ours was nought point five nine.

86

Let me translate that,

because it's the ball game.

87

Expected goals on target measures

the quality of the shots that

88

actually made the keeper work.

89

The ones on the frame.

90

Ours was nought point five nine.

91

For the entire 90 minutes.

92

We barely tested Mark

Flecken all afternoon.

93

And when we did get a shot away,

we were pulling the trigger from

94

places you simply don't score from.

95

The edge of the box, tight angles, off

balance, half chances dressed up as shots.

96

And that's the whole game

in a single sentence.

97

We had the ball, but

we did nothing with it.

98

Look at the possession.

99

Fifty-one, forty-nine.

100

Basically dead even.

101

We actually made more entries into

the final third than they did.

102

Fifty-six to forty-six.

103

So it's not like we

couldn't get up the pitch.

104

We got up the pitch plenty.

105

We just hit a wall the moment we

got there and settled for pot shots.

106

Possession without penetration.

107

All the ball, none of the bite.

108

So the obvious question, why?

109

Why couldn't we get through?

110

And the answer's two names sitting

right in the middle of the park,

111

Ezequiel Fernández and Alex

García, Leverkusen's double pivot.

112

Fernández was an absolute menace.

113

11 ground duels, won six of

them, five tackles, three won.

114

That is more ball-winning than

anyone on the pitch on either side.

115

Every time we tried to play through

the middle, he was there, nicking

116

it, blocking it, breaking it up, and

next to him, García was the calm one.

117

91 touches, 89% passing, 95% of it in his

own half, just sitting there, recycling,

118

controlling the tempo, never flustered.

119

Because the two of them, they slammed the

door on the entire center of the pitch,

120

bolted it, and that right there is why

our shot map looks like the way it does.

121

Everything shoved out wide,

everything from distance.

122

Because the front door was shut,

and all we had left was the windows.

123

When people say a game was won in

midfield, this is what they really mean.

124

It's not a cliché this time.

125

It's on the stat sheet.

126

But if midfield is where we got

controlled, our fullbacks are where

127

we got stretched, both of them.

128

And this is the bit I really want you to

clock, because it sets up Player Watch

129

Miguel Gutierrez played left back for

Leverkusen, a defender, and he was the

130

best player on the pitch by a distance.

131

An 8.7

132

rating, man of the match, and he spent

the afternoon getting forward and running

133

at Gruda, Gomez and Baku down our right.

134

Over and over.

135

Eight ground duels, 5-1, 13 carries

from a full-back, relentless.

136

But before we talk about Antonio

Nusa, I want to mention something.

137

And it's on the same side.

138

Rydal Baku was having his own nightmare.

139

Our right back racked up 12 ground duels.

140

12.

141

He won just seven of them.

142

So it's not like he was

getting skinned every time.

143

But 12 individual battles in

one game is the fingerprint

144

of a full-back under siege.

145

Both of our full-backs were on

islands, both fighting fires.

146

That's not a criticism of either of them.

147

That's a very good team stretching us wide

on both flanks and picking its moments.

148

So let's talk about how the goals actually

arrived, because the sequence matters.

149

First, and this is the moment

the whole game pivots on.

150

34th minute, Christopher Nkunku

puts the ball in the net.

151

The away end goes up, and

then Var chalks it off.

152

Offside

153

now we're coming back to that VAR call

properly in the Digital Terrace mailbag,

154

because a certain someone in the Terrace

has thoughts, and I want to do it justice.

155

But just sit with the

swing of it for a second.

156

If that goal stands, it's 1-0

Leipzig, away at Leverkusen, and

157

this is a completely, totally

different football match.

158

The whole psychology flips.

159

Instead, 10 minutes later, 44th

minute, right on the stroke of

160

half-time, Schick pounces, and a

proper centre forward's finish it was.

161

Four shots on the day, 0.78

162

XG, and an XG on target of 1.27,

163

which means when he hit the target, he hit

it well, better than the chances deserved.

164

So we don't just go in level at the

break, which is where we'd have been.

165

We go in a goal down, having

just taken one off us.

166

That's a gut punch.

167

That's the kind of thing that puts

a crack in a team's belief right

168

before they walk down the tunnel.

169

And then the second 45th

minute, Guder is again.

170

Of course it's him.

171

And you do not want anyone blaming

Martine Vandervoort for this

172

one, because I've seen the takes.

173

Fast break, left-footed finish, XG

on that specific chance of just 0.14,

174

but an XG on target of 0.53.

175

Same story as Schick.

176

In plain terms, it was a beautifully

struck, well-placed finish into a

177

corner keepers just do not reach.

178

You have to take your hat off.

179

That's a top goal from a top performer,

and no keeper alive saves that.

180

Which brings us inevitably

to the player watch.

181

Last episode, we set the duel.

182

Miguel Gutierrez against Antonio Nusa.

183

Now, full disclosure, these two

weren't actually marking each other.

184

Gutierrez did his damage from

the left back down our right.

185

Nusa was off on our left.

186

So this isn't a head-to-head

tackle for tackle thing.

187

It's the question Player

Watch always asks.

188

Of these two, who generally

bent the game to their will?

189

And I have to call it

straight down the middle.

190

No spin.

191

It was Gutierrez, comprehensively.

192

Let me lay it out.

193

8.7

194

rating, man of the match, a goal and

assist, a hand in both Leverkusen goals.

195

And I'll say it again

because it's remarkable.

196

He did it all from left back and in

eight ground duels, 5-1, 13 carries for

197

130-odd metres and you've got a two-way

performance that basically decided a

198

top spiel from a defensive position.

199

That's a complete,

complete afternoon's work.

200

Now, here's where I'm going

to surprise you, because I am

201

not here to bury Antonio Nusa.

202

In fact, and check this, Nusa

was our best creator on the day.

203

Full stop.

204

The highest expected assist

of any LiveZ player, 0.65.

205

A big chance created.

206

Two key passes.

207

And he beat his man on the

dribble four times out of six.

208

On another afternoon, that 0.56,

209

sorry, that's 0.65,

210

turns into an assist.

211

We're maybe drawing this game.

212

And you and I are having a completely

different conversation about him.

213

But this is the whole

point of Player Watch.

214

The duel isn't about who

looked the liveliest.

215

It's about who influenced the result.

216

And on that measure, it's no contest.

217

Gutierrez decides the match.

218

Nusa's quality, for all its promise,

never reached the scoreboard.

219

So the duel goes to Leverkusen.

220

And it's not even close.

221

But hold on to that silver

lining because I mean it.

222

Nusa's underlying numbers were

generally and properly encouraging.

223

The process was there, the end

product wasn't, and processes tend

224

to turn into product eventually.

225

File that away because we're

going to want it against Frankfurt

226

So let me try and be balanced,

because that's what this show is for.

227

Could this have been worse?

228

Oh, absolutely.

229

Much worse.

230

Moussa Diaby missed two big

chances on his own, 0.61

231

of XG.

232

And on another night, a

couple of those go in.

233

Schick missed one.

234

Facundo Medina missed a

headed chance from a corner.

235

Leverkusen generally

left a hatful out there.

236

Between all of that, this

could, should, on the chances,

237

have been three or four nil.

238

And the reason it wasn't?

239

Martine Vandervoort, a 7.3,

240

the highest rated Leipzig

player on the whole pitch.

241

Four saves, all from inside the box,

and a positive goals prevented figure.

242

He kept the scoreline respectable.

243

He's the reason we're talking

about 2-0 and not a hiding.

244

And the fair to us column, because

there is one, the referee generally

245

did have a rough first half.

246

We'll get into the specifics in a minute.

247

We lost Brazen Gruder to injury at

26 minutes, which forced a reshuffle

248

we never really recovered from.

249

And our best attacking moments,

Nusa's creativity and the Elanui

250

effort that forced Flecken's sharper

save, those weren't the problem.

251

The final ball was the problem.

252

The finish was the problem.

253

But when you strip it all back, the

ref, the injury, the VAR, all of it, the

254

truth is uncomfortable and it is simple.

255

0.85

256

expected goals does not

win you a top spiel.

257

It just doesn't.

258

We were second best on the day and

the honest thing to do is own that

259

before we look for anyone to blame.

260

All right.

261

That's my read.

262

Now let's hear yours, because

The Terrace has been busy.

263

Digital mailbag right after this

264

Quick one before we carry on, and it'll

be quick because you know the drill.

265

RBL Talk has no corporate

backing, none, and that is the

266

entire point of this thing.

267

No sponsor whispering in my ear

about being nice to somebody, no

268

agenda, no gatekeepers between

me and you, just an independent

269

show made by a fan for the fans.

270

But independent doesn't mean free to run.

271

So if you get something out of this,

if it makes your commute or your shift

272

a bit better, the links to support

the show are down in the description.

273

Every little bit helps cover the

costs and keeps this thing exactly

274

what it is, independent and ours.

275

Right, that's me done with the ask.

276

Back to it.

277

The Digital Terrace has spoken,

and we're taking your takes

278

Two submissions this week, and like

I said up top, they could not be

279

more different, and I love that.

280

One's a rapier, one's a broadsheet essay.

281

Let's take them in order.

282

First up, this is from Shumi on X, handle

283

@VECRasenballist, and it

is short, and it is sharp.

284

In the original German, which has

been translated to, "I'm still

285

waiting for the official VAR line."

286

And Schumi, mate, you are

not alone, not even slightly.

287

That's the Nkunku disallowed

goal at thirty-four minutes

288

we were just talking about.

289

The one that swung the whole match.

290

I was watching on BeIn Sports here in

Australia on the digital terrace feed,

291

and I want to be straight with you.

292

I never saw the offside

line graphic, not once.

293

They went to the VAR check, they

came back, goal's off, play on, no

294

lines, no freeze frame, nothing.

295

And from the sound of it, and

Schumi's posting in German, so I'd

296

wager they were watching the German

feed, maybe even in the stadium,

297

it wasn't even shown there either.

298

And look, this is completely fair gripe.

299

I want to be careful here.

300

This is not a we were robbed job.

301

I've just spent ten minutes or so

telling you we lost this game on

302

chances, and I stand by every word of it.

303

The offside might well have been bang on.

304

Offside is offside if the

technology says so, and I'm not

305

for a second claiming a conspiracy.

306

But when a single decision swings

a match that hard, the difference

307

between going in level and going in a

goal down at half-time, the supporters

308

who live and die by this stuff

deserve to actually see the evidence.

309

Show us the lines.

310

Show us the frame, because just trust

us it was offside is not good enough

311

for a call that of that, that magnitude.

312

Not in twenty twenty-six.

313

Transparency isn't a big ask.

314

It's the least they can do.

315

So here's a job for the terrace.

316

If anyone out there saw the

official VAR line for that call

317

in the BayArena on a different

broadcast anywhere, get it into us.

318

Screenshot it, send it in, email

it to the show, send it to the,

319

any of the social media channels,

because right now the whole thing's

320

running on faith, and Schumi's

right to want a bit more than faith.

321

Cracking submission, Schumi.

322

Exactly the kind of

thing this segment's for

323

now this next one, this is

a different beast entirely.

324

This is a proper considered essay from

Kenny in the Discord, and it's a really

325

good piece of writing, so I wanna do

it justice rather than just skim it

326

Let me give you the thrust

of what Kenny's saying.

327

Another top spill, another defeat.

328

This team, he says, is

nothing if not consistent.

329

He's a long-term optimist, reckons there's

more to come from this group, but the

330

growing pains are hard to watch right now.

331

His read on the game, the

fine margins went against us.

332

A marginal offside, a terrific

opposition goal, and we go in behind

333

despite dominating the first half.

334

They dominate the second, and his

words, we might have kept it to

335

one-nil had Martine been on his game.

336

But the deeper worry, the one that's

really eating at him, is this.

337

When we fall behind, we fall apart.

338

There's not enough resolve,

not enough self-belief.

339

From the moment Bayer scored, he says

he never once thought we'd get anything.

340

And maybe, maybe the international

break comes at a good time

341

for everyone to take a breath.

342

Kenny, that is a brilliant,

thoughtful take, and I agree

343

with most of it generally.

344

But there's one line I've got to push back

on gently with the numbers in my hand,

345

because that's the deal on this show.

346

You said we might have kept it

to one-nil had Martín been on his

347

game, and I've got to stand up for

the keeper here, Kenny, because the

348

data won't let me do anything else.

349

Vandevoordt finished on a seven

point three, the highest-rated

350

Leipzig player on the pitch.

351

Four saves, every single one of

them from inside the box, and a

352

positive goals prevented figure,

plus nought point three six.

353

In layman's terms, that means he stopped

slightly more than an average keeper

354

would have from the shots he faced.

355

He didn't cost us, he saved us.

356

And Gündoğan's goal, the one that

made it two, that was an XG on

357

target of nought point five three.

358

A genuinely excellent finish

into a spot keepers don't get to.

359

You can't pin that one on Martín.

360

If anything, and I said this in the

recap, he's the reason it stayed

361

two-nil instead of three-nil or four.

362

The chances warranted.

363

This game was not lost in goal.

364

It just wasn't.

365

But, and here's where you're

absolutely 100% spot on,

366

Kenny, the fragility is real.

367

And what's more is right there

in the data too, which is

368

what makes your take so sharp.

369

Fifty-six final third entries and almost

nothing of quality came from any of them.

370

And look at what happened

after their goal.

371

Our shot map turns into a

scattergun of low percentage

372

efforts from wide and from range.

373

That thing you described, falling

apart when we go behind, it shows up

374

statistically as a team that kept the

ball but completely stopped threatening

375

the moment it, it went a goal down.

376

The possession stayed, the belief drained.

377

You felt it, and the numbers felt it too.

378

So I'm right there with

you on the psychology.

379

Dead on.

380

I just move the finger off

Martín's gloves and point it at

381

the fine margins in both boxes.

382

Theirs were, they were clinical,

and ours were, we froze.

383

And yes, 100%, the break's well-timed.

384

Reset the heads, get Gruda looked at,

and come back swinging against Frankfurt.

385

Two smashing submissions.

386

Keep them coming.

387

SpeakPipe, Spotify comments,

the Discord, all of it.

388

This segment lives and dies on your

takes, and this week you delivered

389

Right, heads up, chins

up, let's look forward.

390

Frankfurt at the Red Bull Arena, half

six on the Saturday night back in

391

Leipzig, the marquee top spiel slot,

the big stage kickoff, which for those

392

of us down here in Adelaide, lands

at 3:00 in the morning on the Sunday.

393

So no, not civilized.

394

I'll be setting the alarm, getting the

kettle on, and let's do it properly.

395

I'll be drinking coffee

in the mug for this one.

396

First, let's set the mood with

the head-to-head, because this

397

one's got some spice to it.

398

Now, the top line is good for us.

399

We lead the recent Bundesliga

record against Frankfurt, six wins

400

to three, and when we beat them,

we can absolutely batter them.

401

Last time out, we won 3-1 away, and

before that, we put six past them.

402

At home, six-nil.

403

So there's genuine happy history here.

404

But, and Terrace, the older

heads among you will remember

405

those ones through your fingers.

406

Frankfurt have also stuck

four-nil on us twice.

407

In recent memory, two

separate four-nil hidings.

408

So the pattern with this fixture is

we usually win, but when Frankfurt

409

catch us right, it doesn't just go

wrong, it goes catastrophically wrong.

410

This is never, ever a quiet afternoon.

411

Respect them or they'll embarrass you.

412

The record proves it both ways.

413

Okay, now here's where the Sofa

Score season numbers say heading in.

414

And I'll be honest, I

like what I'm reading.

415

Start with the attack

because it's a dead heat.

416

Both teams have scored nine

goals in four games, identical.

417

Two point three a game each.

418

So this fixture is not going to be decided

by who's the better attacking side.

419

On the numbers, there's nothing in it,

which means it comes down to who defends.

420

And Frankfurt don't.

421

I'm sorry, they don't.

422

Ten goals conceded to our five.

423

That's two and a half a game

against our one point th- three.

424

Zero clean sheets all season, we've

got two, and it's just not the

425

goals, it's how they're defending.

426

Look at the workload numbers.

427

Thirty-six clearances a game, fifteen

tackles, over twelve interceptions.

428

Now, some people see big

defensive numbers and think solid.

429

It's the opposite.

430

Those are not the numbers

of a team in control.

431

Those are the numbers of a team camped

in its own box, hoofing the ball into

432

row Z because it's under the pump.

433

They defend deep, they defend

reactive, and here's the kicker, their

434

high line keeps getting caught out.

435

Over two offsides a game they're winning,

which tells you they push up and gamble

436

And what are we?

437

We're a ball-dominant winning side.

438

58% possession on the season.

439

We rack up nearly 484 accurate

passes a game at almost 88%.

440

We get more shots on

target than they do, 6.3

441

to 4.8.

442

And we're the tidier, more

solid defensive unit by a mile.

443

So you put all that together, and

on paper, this is our kind of game.

444

A side that will happily give us

the ball, sit off, and can be got

445

at if we're patient and precise.

446

If we play our football, we win this

447

But, and you knew there'd

be a but, because we don't

448

do complacency on this show.

449

We just watched for 90 minutes at

Leverkusen over the weekend exactly what

450

happens when we get the ball and the

territory and can't turn it into anything.

451

We miss 1.8

452

big chances a game.

453

That's the highest figure in this

entire matchup, higher than Frankfurt's.

454

So the very flaw that cost us at

the BayArena is the flaw that could

455

cost us here if we're wasteful.

456

And Frankfurt are not toothless.

457

Don't let the defensive mess fool you.

458

They create three and a half big chances

a game, Which is actually more than we do.

459

So they can carry a real genuine

sting on the counter if we overcommit.

460

If we pour bodies forward chasing

the game and leave space in

461

behind, they've got the players to

punish us once and nick something.

462

That's how those four-nils happen.

463

File that thought.

464

We'll come back to it for the prediction.

465

Bit of team news, and this is

a genuine doubt, so listen up.

466

Brazen Gruda came off injured at

26 minutes against Leverkusen.

467

He was pointing to his

right hip as he went down.

468

Now, I'm no doctor.

469

I'm a public transport worker who talks

about football on a podcast, so I'm not

470

going to sit here and diagnose it for you.

471

What I will say is, it's a hip concern.

472

We lost him early, and the

complicating factor, he's been

473

called up for the German national

team for this international break.

474

So his workload over the next

fortnight is very much one to watch.

475

Does he play for Germany?

476

Does he aggravate it?

477

He is, as of right now, a genuine

doubt for the international

478

games and for Frankfurt.

479

At full transparency, we may

not have a confirmed update by

480

the time this episode goes up.

481

But the Gruda update will be

posted as soon as I know in

482

the Digital Terrace Discord

483

Now this Garuda news matters for the

shape of the side because we were already

484

light out wide once he limped off.

485

Tijjani Gomes came on and gave us

energy, but not a lot of control.

486

So the wide areas are a question

mark going into this one

487

And that brings us to your player watch

duel for Frankfurt, and it's a beauty.

488

I'm probably going to say this

wrong, but let's have a crack anyway.

489

Yunes Ebnutilib, their right

winger, against David Raum,

490

our captain at left back.

491

Let me sell you on Ebnutilib,

because he's the one keeping

492

opposition analysts up at night.

493

8 million euro signing back in January,

decent money, real investment, and

494

he has flown out of the blocks.

495

Four goals and an assist

already this season.

496

A 9.7

497

masterclass against Union Berlin.

498

9.7.

499

That's a near-perfect game.

500

A team of the week nod, the lot.

501

He's normally a right winger, but his

season heat map shows him drifting

502

inside into the box, hunting the ball.

503

He is plainly the danger man.

504

But here's the scouting detail

that tells us how to handle him.

505

He's got four goals from 2.85

506

expected goals.

507

Read that carefully with me.

508

He is overperforming his XG,

which means one of two things.

509

Either he's generally an elite finisher,

or he's on a hot streak that'll cool.

510

Probably a bit of both.

511

But the underlying quality of the

chances he is getting is more modest

512

than the goal tally suggests, and

that tells us exactly how to stop him.

513

Don't let him get near set.

514

Don't let him drift into

the box and pick his spot.

515

Force him wide.

516

Make him shoot from range where

the XG says he shouldn't score.

517

Deny the entries, and the goals dry up

518

And that job, that specific

job, falls to David Raum.

519

But here's what makes this a proper

duel, not just a marking assignment.

520

Raum isn't only a defender.

521

He's our single biggest creative

outlet down that left side.

522

Against Leverkusen, even in a losing side,

he had four key passes and 13 crosses.

523

13.

524

So the question for our

captain is a brutal two-way.

525

One, can he shut down an in-form

Interloupe and still get forward

526

and give us our left-sided

threat going the other way?

527

Because if Raum wins both halves of

that battle, we win this football match.

528

But if Eb Nutilib pins him back, if

Raum spends 90 minutes facing his

529

own goal, we lose our best avenue

of attack and we're under pressure.

530

That's the whole game.

531

Distilled into one duel down our left.

532

Watch it.

533

So the prediction.

534

Off the data, this points one way.

535

We're the better-rated side.

536

We're more solid.

537

We're ball dominant.

538

We're at home.

539

And we're up against a team shipping

two and a half goals a game with not

540

a single clean sheet to their name.

541

The clean sheet, a proper professional

control the game clean sheet, is

542

generally on the table for us.

543

I can see it.

544

But I keep coming back to

that sting on the counter.

545

Because I know this team.

546

We like the ball.

547

We like to push our

fullbacks on, Raum included.

548

And against a side with Frankfurt's

counter-attacking threat, that's a risk.

549

If we overcommit, they will catch us once.

550

I'd put my money on them getting one.

551

So I'm not going to call the

clean sheet, tempting as it is.

552

I'm going

553

Leipzig two, Frankfurt one.

554

We will take three points.

555

We impose ourselves, but they nick

one on the break to keep us honest.

556

That's my call.

557

And Terrors, I would love to be

wrong about that Frankfurt goal.

558

Prove me wrong.

559

Give me the clean sheet

560

Right, let's bring it home.

561

Three things to take

away from this episode.

562

The headlines if you're only

going to remember three.

563

Takeaway one, Leverkusen didn't rob us.

564

They out-created us.

565

0.85

566

expected goals, one big

chance in a top spiel.

567

The fine margins didn't help.

568

The referee didn't help.

569

The VAR call didn't help.

570

But underneath all of that, we lost

this game on quality in both boxes.

571

Theirs was clinical.

572

Ours went missing.

573

Own it, learn from it, move on

574

Takeaway two.

575

Yes, Gutiérrez took our player

watch honors, and it wasn't close.

576

But Antonio Nusa's underlying creative

numbers were the best on our team

577

and a genuine reason for optimism.

578

The process is there.

579

Keep the faith with the young man

580

And takeaway three, Frankfurt at home is

a clear chance to reset the whole mood.

581

They leak goals, they'll give us the

ball, they can be got at, but, but we

582

have to actually convert this time, and

we cannot overcommit into their counter.

583

Do not those two things,

and we win comfortably.

584

Get either one wrong, and this fixture

has a nasty history of biting us.

585

And that leads me to what I want

from you, the Digital Terrace.

586

For the next episode,

two questions this week.

587

One, can David Raum win his duel

with Yunus Ibn Talib and still

588

give us our threat down the left?

589

And two, what's your scoreline

for Frankfurt at home?

590

Are you braver than me?

591

Are you calling the clean sheet?

592

You know how to reach me.

593

Drop a SpeakPipe, up to

five minutes of audio.

594

The link's in the show notes.

595

And honestly, the audio ones

are my favorite to play.

596

Leave a comment on this episode

over on Spotify, or get stuck into

597

the debate in the Digital Terrace

Discord, whatever's easiest.

598

I read and hear all of them.

599

And one last time, if this show means

something to you, help me keep it

600

independent, no corporate sponsors, no

agendas, no gatekeepers, just pure Leipzig

601

passion, made by one of us for all of us.

602

The links to support RBL Talk are down

in the show notes, and every bit of

603

it goes back straight into keeping

this show free and keeping it ours.

604

If you can't chip in, no worries at

all, then just do the free stuff.

605

Hit subscribe, leave us a review,

tell one other Leipzig fan about us.

606

That's generally how the Terrace

grows, one fan telling another.

607

That's your episode for 122.

608

Chin up, heads up.

609

The break's here.

610

We take our breath, and we go again.

611

Frankfurt at home.

612

Can't wait.

613

I'll see you on the Digital Terrace feed.

614

I've been Justin Crozer, and

until next time, bye-bye for now.