In this Global Outlook episode, we look at Ukraine halting the Russian advances on Donbas just in time for Putin's 74th birthday, Pakistan attacking the Houthis to help Saudi Arabia, and South Korea selling fuel to Russia while also helping Ukraine.
We start with a look at Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi which has halted Russian plans to take key cities in the Donbas region, which included large UAVs delivering UGVs to cause havoc behind Russian lines. This has effectively defeated the Russian incursions and pushed them back just as the weather changes to reduce ground war options as Winter approaches. Russia's missile and drone attacks on power stations, fuel supplies and civilian targets in Ukraine are now likely to increase even more than has been seen in recent weeks. All of this is occurring at the time of Putin's 74th birthday which raises the question of his health and lack of a nominated successor, and could potentially mobilise opposing factions within Russia that will fight for control.
The discussion then moves to the Middle East where the Saudi's have activated the assistance aspects of their recent agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. As a result, Pakistan are now attacking the Houthis, which may raise questions for India.
The big topic for this episode, though, is the reports that the South Koreans are selling fuel, including Diesel, to Russia via sanctioned vessels, all while being on Ukraine's side. We look at the issue of North Korean POWs that Ukraine is holding, South Korea's previous dealings with Russia, North Korea's closer ties with Russia, and the sinking of a Russian cargo ship near Spain that was taking nuclear reactors to Vladivostok but was likely intended for North Korea. Is supplying fuel to Russia a way for South Korea to establish leverage over them, potentially influencing them to reduce their use of North Korean troops and the military and technical assistance they are providing, including weapons and nuclear reactors? Could the trust and trade disputes between the USA and South Korea be contributing to this? Could the USA leverage their nuclear assistance to South Korea to pressure them to cease supplying the fuel? If the US does use their nuclear technology for leverage, it could show AUKUS' leverage for forcing Australia to support their goals?
Links:
Drones above, robots below — inside Operation Vivaldi, Ukraine’s push to recapture territory in Donetsk Oblast
https://kyivindependent.com/inside-operation-vivaldi-how-ukraine-uses-drones-robots-to-liberate-territory-in-donetsk-oblast/
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