How should we be reading the 2022 polls, in light of shifting margins and past misses? Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen joins us on The Downballot to explain how his firm weights polls to reflect the likely electorate; why Democratic leads in most surveys this year should be treated as smaller than they appear because undecided voters lean heavily anti-Biden; and the surprisingly potent impact abortion has had on moving the needle with voters despite our deep polarization.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into the third-quarter fundraising numbers for both Senate and House candidates that show Democrats crushing it; explore the GOP's $1 million infusion into Oklahoma's shockingly competitive race for governor; highlight two new resources from Daily Kos Elections: our candidate guide and our House Vulnerability Index; and explain why the epic Tory meltdown in the U.K. is not likely to lead to early elections.

Next week, we’re doing a mailbag episode! Send us all your questions on the midterms and we’ll answer them. You can email us at thedownballot@dailykos.com, or you can find us on Twitter at @DKElections.

Episode transcript is available here.