Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marko on Twitter.
00:00 - Intro
02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic
10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?
14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?
21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?
25:42 - What actually causes recessions?
32:33 - Using constraints based analysis
37:15 - What is the median voter theory?
40:33 - Are median voters controlled by media?
45:24 - The role of Bayesian analysis
53:02 - Papic’s take on spread trades
59:13 - Is the dollar overvalued?
01:03:46 - Predicting an invasion
01:09:20 - A strengthening of the Baltic states
01:17:08 - Key takeaways from Niels
Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here