In the season finale of The Move, Jarrod and Michael sit down with Sir Steven Wilkinson to examine a question that’s been building all season: why is sophisticated capital finally paying serious attention to healthcare real estate?
The answer isn’t about square footage or cap rates. It’s about understanding what happens inside these buildings—the workflows, the ecosystems, the outcomes. As Steven frames it, businesses exist to solve problems. And there’s no bigger problem facing Western economies over the next 50 years than healthcare delivery.
This episode challenges investors still categorizing healthcare alongside student housing and self-storage to reconsider. These aren’t just properties—they’re essential infrastructure in how care actually gets delivered. For family offices and institutional investors, it’s a different lens: one grounded in demographic inevitability and operational depth.
You're listening to the Move with Jared Daddis and Michael Ray.
Speaker A:Conversations exploring why healthcare real estate is moving from alternative to essential, and how smart capital is making the shift to one of the most overlooked asset classes today.
Speaker B:Morning, Mike.
Speaker C:Morning, J.D.
Speaker C:how are you?
Speaker B:I'm good.
Speaker B:How are you?
Speaker C:I'm great.
Speaker B:I'm great.
Speaker B:An important question for you today.
Speaker C:I cannot wait.
Speaker B:So last week we were traveling to Alabama and.
Speaker B:And I learned about tomato pie.
Speaker B:What's the origin of tomato pie?
Speaker C:First, I apologize that it took.
Speaker B:Is it tomato?
Speaker C:No, it's tomato.
Speaker B:Tomato.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker C:And depending on your age, it could be mater.
Speaker B:Okay, fair enough.
Speaker C:Mater pie.
Speaker C:Sorry it took so long to have you enjoy one of life's greatest delicacies.
Speaker B:Indeed, indeed.
Speaker C:But as to the origin, I'm just going to go ahead and debunk what you may otherwise discover.
Speaker C:You know, through your Google friend.
Speaker C:I have it on good order that the origin of tomato pie was in fact the divine.
Speaker C:I think it was the starter course at the.
Speaker C:At the Last Supper.
Speaker B:I get that now.
Speaker B:I get that now.
Speaker B:Oh, that's amazing.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Well, in all seriousness, I'm excited about today's episode.
Speaker C:Yeah, me too.
Speaker B:It's hard to imagine that we're wrapping up a season.
Speaker D:I know.
Speaker B:And, you know, we started out the season with, you know, what's the opportunity for the smart investor in the healthcare space and pretty excited about the guests that we have with us today.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker B:And so why don't you take it from here?
Speaker C:Yeah, sure.
Speaker C:And, you know, just to pick up there.
Speaker C:I think what's important too is, you know, as we've gone along this journey, we've discussed and we've analyzed how those demographic tailwinds and the macro trends have informed, you know, our thesis and how we execute on that in the context of our design, our delivery, and then our operation of our assets and how that creates the corresponding value for our investors.
Speaker C:But one of the unique things is that these.
Speaker C:These demographic tailwinds and these trends aren't specific to the US they are global facts.
Speaker C:Right, my good old fashioned.
Speaker D:Unlike tomato pie, Unlike tomato.
Speaker C:Well, that is just an absolute.
Speaker C:Right.
Speaker C:It is, it is.
Speaker C:It's just.
Speaker C:It's the starter course.
Speaker C:Let's just call it supreme.
Speaker C:So you've obviously already discerned, our distinguished guest is from across the pond and sees afar, but is extremely knowledgeable in these areas.
Speaker C:I refer to him as the capitalist grandeur.
Speaker C:You know, a true capitalist that has played in.
Speaker C:In each part of the space as.
Speaker C:As investor, as an entrepreneur, as an Economist in sort of really sort of navigating all these things and doing so on, on a global basis.
Speaker C:So we are incredibly fortunate and lucky to have Sir Stephen Wilkinson join us today.
Speaker D:Thank you very much.
Speaker D:But I'm not sure that you need a guest.
Speaker D:You're just sitting here watching the two of you play this.
Speaker D:I'm happy to sit here.
Speaker C:Don't be confused.
Speaker C:This, this is still all about us.
Speaker C:Thank you and welcome.
Speaker C:Thank you.
Speaker C:All right, so Stephen, I think one of the best places to start and, and we've kind of done this to, to sort of set context is, you know, take it back to the beginning when we were first introduced to you.
Speaker C:It was at sort of an opportune point in time.
Speaker C:And Jared, I know you were, you know, the first point of contact for that.
Speaker C:So why don't you provide that sort of contextual framework on how Stephen came into our lives and, and, and the importance of that particular moment in time?
Speaker B:Yeah, perhaps it was the divine that led us together, but I think there were some, some common business associates that we've been introduced and very fortunate to have met.
Speaker B:You and I take us back to a couple of years ago.
Speaker B:I recall it was a Saturday morning and Stephen and I were having a conversation about our industry and our business and everything we've been talking about this whole season.
Speaker B:The data that's out there, the demand drivers that are out there, the supply constraint.
Speaker B:And given that our growth and the needs in the United States that are occurring right now, extremely capital intensive business.
Speaker B:And we have had some amazing investor partners on both the institutional side and the high net worth private side.
Speaker B:And so we got into a deep conversation about where the world's going, where the United States is going and what the real needs are.
Speaker B:And that led to a very robust conversation that is still an ongoing conversation over the past couple years.
Speaker B:And so maybe Stephen, you can take it from there of where we started to evolve and start to think a little differently about the capital and the investor and what may be missing for some investors in today's portfolio.
Speaker D:Can I give a little bit more context to that original conversation which I think is important in understanding the cultural and the capital aspects.
Speaker D:What I have learned over the past couple of years of working with you gentlemen is that that the, the people part of the business is every single bit as important as the capital part.
Speaker D:In other words, the, the alpha that's being generated, particularly in seniors, but also I've understood through the strategic intelligence that is brought to the real estate development for the hospital systems and Your partners in the medical arena.
Speaker D:It is.
Speaker D:Is absolutely crucial and that in order to continue to do that whilst growing and becoming and fulfilling, if you like, the.
Speaker D:The mission of the business, to remain a leading provider of healthcare real estate solutions and good outcomes for everybody.
Speaker D:The, the private nature of the business, the entrepreneurial.
Speaker D:The entrepreneurial business identity of Nexcor needed to be, I'm gonna say, to ensure that the institute, it wasn't too institutionalized, you could still react and be authentically people oriented and that how do you manage growth whilst requiring larger amounts of capital and remaining focused on the core people part of the business.
Speaker D:Whether it's the way that you think about the occupants of the communities, whether you.
Speaker D:The way you think about communities themselves, not just as deliverers of cash flow that feed into spreadsheet models that then drive irr, but actually the drivers of all the economic activity that is going on within those various silos.
Speaker D:How do you do that without becoming overly institutionalized?
Speaker D:Because that inflection point that's happening at a particular time in your business, it's happening a particular time in your industry, it's happening a particular time in each of the individual silos or business lines requires a very sensitive combination of institutional and private capital that allows you to maintain your identity through growth without falling off on either side of it.
Speaker D:And that's a very delicate balance and business challenge that I have noticed is really at the heart of all of your thinking around the growth of the business.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker C:Which is.
Speaker C:Which is interesting.
Speaker C:Absolutely agree.
Speaker C:And as you were walking through that and providing that context, I think it gives us another opportunity to kind of go back to a different beginning.
Speaker C:And it was the beginning of this podcast where in the very first episode we addressed the misperception or misconception that healthcare is an healthcare.
Speaker C:Real estate in particular is an alternative asset class.
Speaker C:Or is it the asset class hiding in plain sight?
Speaker C:And over the course of these episodes and these conversations, I think one of the consistent themes that emerges speaks to the heart of the matter of.
Speaker C:Of your comment, which is it's much more success around and within the sector of healthcare.
Speaker C:Real estate is.
Speaker C:Is much more than just the real estate.
Speaker C:It's, you know, at one point we described it as.
Speaker C:It's.
Speaker C:It's, you know, the most important thing is the service that's being delivered.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker C:When you think about it in the context of the medical, the, in the context of the seniors, it's going into the community prior to groundbreaking, prior to.
Speaker C:In the process of deal pursuit to understand the community and to listen and to say, is this what this community really needs?
Speaker C:And in what way, shape or form should that vertical development take on to tie it all together?
Speaker C:I kind of go back to the fundamental question that I know you and I have wrestled with, which is, is that what makes health care real estate alternative in capital's eyes?
Speaker C:Or are we just now reaching a point very much like yourself, who previously, before the last two, three years, knew of the space but didn't know the space?
Speaker C:Is it just coming to the realization and understanding that it isn't as overly complex as it may seem on the surface, but done right, done correctly, done with a group that has the combination of the human capital and the opportunity, does that make it less alternative?
Speaker D:I think the alternative bucket in which healthcare has been placed is a, a result of, I'm not going to call it intellectual laziness, but not quite sure what to do with it.
Speaker C:Can I call it that?
Speaker D:Yeah, you can.
Speaker D:I'm too polite.
Speaker C:Yes.
Speaker C:How very English.
Speaker D:My wife says that the English is too polite to be honest and the Germans are too honest to be polite.
Speaker D:The.
Speaker D:I, I think if I.
Speaker D:Isn't there an Internet like service where you can go back and look at various versions of a web site and.
Speaker C:You can go, yes.
Speaker D:Yeah, I don't know what it's called.
Speaker C:Yes.
Speaker C:I'm told nothing ever goes away on the Internet.
Speaker D:If I were to go back to, I don't know, three or four years ago to my own, what, what associations immediately came up for me when I was thinking of health care real estate, I would say it's hospitals, huge projects.
Speaker D:They're almost like infrastructure projects.
Speaker D:They were.
Speaker D:Who would be financing that?
Speaker D:I would go to Macquarie or to one of the big infrastructure, infrastructure project financing companies and you would get into a fund and if it was healthcare then you'd be buying a slice of.
Speaker C:Hospitals, airports, toll bridges, domain of Macquarie.
Speaker D:I would have put that in the same bucket right now for playing a few iterations forward.
Speaker D:Where am I today?
Speaker D:My understanding is far more granular and it is an appreciation that every single one of the real estate solutions is in fact a people and business solution that is being wrapped into real estate.
Speaker D:And that the alpha to use in investing, the term that investors like to talk about, you know, where's the, where's the lift coming from?
Speaker D:The ingredients, the concrete and the steel and the glass and the, the design.
Speaker D:Where's the lift coming from?
Speaker D:The lift is coming from this ability to understand what the people are doing in them.
Speaker D:Much more so than in.
Speaker D:I mean, every real estate, I was talking a little bit disparaging about the boxes and the people.
Speaker D:So all real estate is basically putting boxes on the ground in which people can do things.
Speaker D:And some of those things are very simple and replicable, multifamily.
Speaker D:People want to live in them.
Speaker D:It's not that difficult.
Speaker D:Storage, self storage units.
Speaker D:People want to put their surfboards or their boxes or the stuff that they can't bring themselves to throw away into.
Speaker C:Right.
Speaker D:With healthcare real estate in offices, you could, you know, be flippant and say, well, in offices, people just want to stick computers in and have meetings.
Speaker D:But in healthcare real estate, there is a far more operationally relevant need to understand the workflows, the people.
Speaker D:Even in an office, medical office building, I have understood there is far more complexity, not just in getting, you know, the hospital having some more space and filling that with a few physicians.
Speaker D:I've understood that the real estate becomes part of the, part of the compensation, the global compensation of the physicians, that the physicians are not just physicians, that there are.
Speaker D:There are different mixes of physicians, some that all need to come together in this very delicate ecosystem that if it works, is immensely.
Speaker D:Is immensely powerful in creating more of whatever, more care, more incentive, more local presence, more results.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker C:And I think it's interesting because when you articulate it that way, and you may not sort of, this is going to be a US TV reference, but we're not developing Agrestic, you know, little houses on a hilltop, that sort of commoditized version is that place where people eat tomato pie.
Speaker C:Yes.
Speaker C:Because they're super stoned.
Speaker C:So it's really funny, I'll tell you about that off camera, but.
Speaker C:But you know what's interesting, what went through my mind as you went through that characterization and description is when you think about office in particular, in the wake of the pandemic, flight to quality was an afterthought.
Speaker C:Whereas in the healthcare space, that emphasis on quality, because all the things that you just listed to be done well must be done first.
Speaker C:And so again, it's that sort of material distinction and differentiation between healthcare and other assets.
Speaker B:The market demands it.
Speaker B:We're at this point in our evolution of a health care system in the United States right now where costs are rising, outcomes have been down in some cases.
Speaker B:And so the, it's.
Speaker B:It's our responsibility to figure out with our health care partners and providers how to solve this differently.
Speaker B:And the box and the people resonates with me because the solution isn't to put a box and fill it With a lot of other asset classes.
Speaker B:That's the approach.
Speaker B:And investors can make a decision, do I deploy capital there and look for the return?
Speaker B:What we're working hard on is to try to solve a big problem.
Speaker B:That big problem is this increase in cost.
Speaker B:And we have an environment where physicians are overworked, they're under compensated.
Speaker B:And if we can come up through a real estate solution and an investment solution, put intelligent design into place, we can actually have more efficient facilities that patients rather be at and reduces stress, which is great.
Speaker B:Better environment for providers, better access to care, better quality, Try to do it in a smaller footprint when possible, but also create flexibility.
Speaker B:That's where we're focused.
Speaker B:Such a different asset class that doesn't.
Speaker B:I don't think that's.
Speaker B:Most investors are aware of the people piece and the nuance of dialing in on how do we think about workflows, how do we think about this real estate in such a way so that it becomes a powerful tool to create a different outcome?
Speaker B:And I think that's part of the struggle because you can look across the street, you can see hospitality, you understand it's a hotel, it's a box where people go to.
Speaker D:Thought that's just occurred to me as you were describing that.
Speaker D:Is that the case for health care?
Speaker D:If you, if you, if you agree with the thesis that businesses are really only there to solve problems, whether they are profitable or not depends on the quality of the problem and the quality of the delivery of the solution of that problem.
Speaker D:But they are only there to solve problems.
Speaker D:Well, I don't think there's an area of our social economy in any country, but particularly in the western countries with their aging demographics and the choices that they have made over the last 50, 60, 70 years, since the end of the last war.
Speaker D:I don't think there's any question that the area that is bringing the biggest problems that need to be solved is healthcare in all its various facets.
Speaker D:Healthcare is almost a.
Speaker D:It's almost a meta description because it's not an industry.
Speaker D:It's tens of twenties or fifty in different industries, all of which are interacting with each other.
Speaker D:But there is no question, I think, in anybody's minds, even if they've not spent much time thinking about healthcare, that one of the biggest problems that we are going to have to solve over the next 50 years is the complexity and problems within the delivery of health to the population.
Speaker C:Yeah, and I think you're right.
Speaker D:And if that finished thought, the.
Speaker D:If that is true, then those people who understand the complexity of the problem are at a massive advantage in figuring out where the solutions are going to be and delivering them.
Speaker D:And the bigger the problem, the bigger the opportunity, the more likely there is to be a flow of capital towards those businesses that are actively working on solving those problems.
Speaker D:And that seems to me, and you know, I'm not being sponsored by this, by you to say this is that there are not that many providers of solutions who are in the unique position that you have been, whether serendipitously or not.
Speaker D:You started working in this area 25 years ago and have been part of the strategic evolution of a problem solving mindset that is looking at the whole healthcare continuum as not just putting boxes for doctors in place.
Speaker D:Agree.
Speaker C:And no dispute with the statement regarding those in the know, you know what you know.
Speaker C:So if you take the time to understand the granularity of the, the space, clearly you are going to put yourself at a massive advantage as compared to the herd.
Speaker C:But I want to pick up on, on sort of what I inferred as a, as a thought, as part of that, that that sort of statement, which is the obviousness of the, the importance of, of health and health care, you know, looking, looking forward, does that in your opinion then make the capital that.
Speaker C:And again, we're just going to continue this, this phrase just for purposes of the conversation.
Speaker C:This is by no means meant to be pejorative or suggestive of the state of any capital out there, but the sort of the lazy capital or the capital that the water that just seeks to sort of flow to the path of least resistance does.
Speaker C:Does the obviousness of the health care space, does that lend itself to, you know, the opportunity associated, you know, in healthcare, real estate to make it easier or let, to lower the barrier to entry to the space.
Speaker C:Like will capital just naturally flow because of that?
Speaker C:That's, you know, just clear need.
Speaker D:I think we've had this conversation that all new applications or destinations for capital follow the same path as technology.
Speaker D:There are early adapters or there are innovators, people who are prepared to put real risk capital early on to try and figure it out because they're, they have, they enjoy the figuring out part of it.
Speaker D:They're the early adapters who, who are using their capital to make in an investment scenario to make, to create alpha or to find alpha before everybody else has got there.
Speaker D:So they're going out on a limb.
Speaker D:They probably have less, they have more entrepreneurial freedom to decide around the deployment of that capital than institutions.
Speaker D:Then there's, if you follow Jeffrey Moore's crossing the chasm argument that there's a gap, right.
Speaker D:And there's a gap between the early adapters and the, the early mass market and the late masters.
Speaker C:That's sort of mainstream.
Speaker D:Mainstream.
Speaker D:So I, I think once the gap has been, the chasm has been bridged by that early capital.
Speaker D:And I think probably the partners that you have had over the past 20 years have been reliable, very visible institutional providers of capital.
Speaker D:They probably were for one reason or another, they knew the space and they were early adapters.
Speaker D:They were prepared to commit capital, they were prepared to do the intellectual work of understanding the specifics of what is a, with definitely a more complicated or more complex value creation proposal and have been reaping the rewards of that for as long as they've been working with.
Speaker B:Right with you.
Speaker D:Yeah, I think we're, you and I have had this discussion, which side of the chasm are we on?
Speaker D:I think we're crossing it at the moment.
Speaker C:It certainly feels like that, you know, that, that Selma moment where you know, you're on one side of the bridge and you see the sort of mass of the crowd kind of beginning and you like the top of their heads kind of thing.
Speaker C:So it feels like we are on the precipice of that, that mainstream moment.
Speaker C:Because to your point, on the institutional capital side, yes, the long standing players with whom we've been incredibly fortunate to, you know, nurture and cultivate those relationships and absolutely expect to sort of continue that going forward.
Speaker C:But where there seems to be a real opportunity is, you know, certainly as you see other institutions that have historically not been in space sort of kind of clamoring over themselves to, you know, they're in a full sort of sprint.
Speaker C:But it's the private capital space.
Speaker C:I think there are absolutely, there's critical mass within that early adopter phase.
Speaker C:You know, our experience has been that, that private capital has been in some form or fashion integrated into the healthcare ecosystem.
Speaker C:So we're, you know, predisposed to, to sort of understanding the granularity of the space.
Speaker C:But how do you see, how do you see the, the, the other side, if you will, of the private capital?
Speaker D:I think if you look at, if you look at your typical family office, there will be a, with its real estate allocation and let's just say for the sake of argument, they have a 20% real estate allocation overall, their non business assets, if they still have the business.
Speaker D:So we're looking at sort of a portfolio structure that says we're going to be 20% in real estate.
Speaker D:And I don't think that's unreasonable.
Speaker D:Now, a family office will have a real estate team, two, three people who, if that, who will be comfortable looking at a multifamily property proposal, an equity book.
Speaker D:They'll be comfortable looking at a real estate deal that is maybe a mall or it's an office building, or they'll be comfortable looking at.
Speaker D:They will believe that they have enough analytical competence to determine whether this Atlanta based office or this multifamily in Phoenix is within the parameters that they have seen because they've seen 20 of them and they've been doing this for five, 10, 15 years and they repeat.
Speaker D:So it's wash, rinse, repeat, and then they have the analytical competence to ask the right questions and know what they know and then they'll make a decision.
Speaker D:I would venture to suggest, and I've certainly never found it, not yet, that there is that level of analytical competence embedded within your average medium to large sized family office.
Speaker D:So there is going to be a hesitancy around making a decision without that analytical competence.
Speaker D:And they don't yet have the relationships that would allow them to ask those questions and to outsource that.
Speaker B:But what happens though for those investors, and we've seen some of that, what happens when those investors don't have alternative investment choices in real estate because of what we would assess are structural changes that are going on since COVID We've seen diminishment in value across multiple asset classes.
Speaker B:We have seen the rise of the health care need continue.
Speaker B:At some point these investors will lose options, lose optionality, not have choice.
Speaker B:And so when do those investors see the opportunity and say now is the time.
Speaker D:Okay, so that's where it starts becoming interesting within the family, family office dynamic.
Speaker D:It depends very much on whether you have, I mean, I talk about G1, G2, G3, G3 being representative of all the generations after the founder, my friend Tony Deaton talks about irreplaceable capital.
Speaker D:Once the business is gone.
Speaker D:That's it.
Speaker C:Yeah, you're not, it's irreplaceable.
Speaker D:There is not a value or an alpha generating complex in the background.
Speaker C:That is the factory is closed.
Speaker D:The factory is closed.
Speaker C:Right.
Speaker D:And you've got what you've got.
Speaker D:And then you start becoming either conservative or not.
Speaker D:And the fact that there are, you know, that most fortunes don't last longer than three generations and start dwindling rapidly within the third generation afterwards.
Speaker D:That's just, that's not even a truism.
Speaker D:That is a, that's almost A physical fact, it's a data point.
Speaker D:But if G1, if the, if the principle is still active and has some knowledge of the sector, then he will be probably in the early adapter phase.
Speaker D:He will say, I get this, I've worked in the healthcare industry and even if it's just being as a medical supply manufacturer, they know the business, they know what they, they have a comprehensive view of the, of the issues that are likely to impact medical officers.
Speaker C:And I think that's been representative of certainly our experience.
Speaker C:Right.
Speaker C:To date.
Speaker C:To date.
Speaker D:So the rest of them, right.
Speaker D:Family offices, particularly if there is, if they're into G2.
Speaker D:Now, once you get to G2, there is usually a professional sitting at the top.
Speaker D:The professional is not going to do anything that other people aren't doing.
Speaker D:They're just not.
Speaker D:Because the most important thing for the professional CIO is job integrity, career integrity.
Speaker C:Well, it's interesting because I was going to, I was going to, yeah, I was going to question the, the sort of, the sort of internal competency thing because I'm curious, is it, is it a competency thing or is it a bandwidth, is it a capacity thing?
Speaker D:Okay.
Speaker D:So right now I suspect that there are many family officers who are dealing with the fallout of the, the, the drawdown in value on office buildings which were, which were core.
Speaker C:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker D:So the reason, I mean there are all sorts of reasons that are feeding into that drawdown, that, that diminution of value, some of it quite dramatic.
Speaker D:It was Covid.
Speaker D:It was the change in, it was the change in work from home, work habits and big question marks over the functionality of downtown real estate, which, you know, for the most part the last 50, 60, probably 100 years has been unquestioned as the core of bulletproof, as you can see, as we had that rapid rise in post Covid inflation and the dramatic, I think the fastest increase in Fed fund rates in the history of the United States or any federal, any Federal Reserve or Reserve institution that led to the great constipation where nobody was sure, are we in a permanent inflation situation?
Speaker D:Capital froze down.
Speaker D: r budgets for investments for: Speaker D:So there is a huge, I mean, I'm not going to take this too far, but there is an awful lot of pressure on the intestinal structure of the market to, to move out.
Speaker D:And the market has changed since then, so there are new options and what I believe will happen.
Speaker D:And this podcast, this podcast that you're creating is an invitation to understand the granularity and to narrow the scope of what people think they don't know or need to know in terms of making these investments and to present healthcare as an emerging core asset.
Speaker D:And as that happens, the analytics, because you were asking is it bandwidth question, I think a lot of family offices are still struggling and are filling bandwidth, available, analytical bandwidth with tidying up the investments that are already there.
Speaker D:That of course ties up capacity.
Speaker D:And particularly if you started to do something new, you need to free up that capacity.
Speaker D:We all know they'll work through it eventually.
Speaker D:And as that new capacity becomes freed up, that's when I think we will see a move towards the establishment of analytical and investment competence for alternatives.
Speaker C:I think that's right.
Speaker C:And what's interesting too, at least in my opinion, is that the elixir, if you will, that is the fix on the institutional side that's creating that new sort of free flow of capital is a very similar catalyst on, on the private side.
Speaker C:And that's just good old fashioned liquidity.
Speaker C:It's, it's coming back whether, you know, on the institutional side, investments that had previously been made and now sort of, you know, harvesting and coming full cycle as the market has, you know, recovered to the greatest extent it could.
Speaker C:And then on the private capital side, it's a combination of realization events in respect of investments made, but also in the context of the sale of businesses.
Speaker D:I'm a fly fisherman, I love fly fishing.
Speaker D:And often if the sun isn't out and you're looking at a stretch of water that you don't know, and you're not quite sure whether the trout are there, you go to the sides that and you start looking under stones to see if there are lava and lava or eggs.
Speaker D:Because if you do that, you know that if there are lava, then there is the high likelihood of there being trout in the water, even if you can't.
Speaker C:Mayflies rising.
Speaker D:So mayflies rising.
Speaker D:And I like to bring that analysis to other areas where there is opacity in terms of, well, is there opportunity there or not?
Speaker D:So you look at the side.
Speaker D:Now, for me, one of the things that is sort of the equivalent of lava under the stone on the side of the water is looking at Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Fortune, possibly the Economist, if I were to still read it, which I can't bring myself to do, or Other newspapers that have an investment theme.
Speaker D:Once healthcare starts appearing on the list of allocated areas for a diversified portfolio.
Speaker D:And I'm not seeing it yet, I'm not seeing it as one graphic, which is the first sign that there might be an interest.
Speaker D:Once healthcare starts appearing as a separate asset class which broken out from alternatives in which it has no business being.
Speaker D:Because, you know, what are the other two in there?
Speaker D:Student housing and self storage.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker D:You two asset classes that could not be, could not be simpler and could not be less comparable with the complexity of the health care ecosystem.
Speaker D:So once you start seeing that, then you know that capital will start following it because it will have to start benchmarking itself against its own.
Speaker C:It has to.
Speaker D:It has to.
Speaker D:So we're not quite there yet.
Speaker D:Which is why my argument, I think, is still valid, probably maybe 52 to 48%, that we're still on this side of the chasm and not the other side.
Speaker C:And I was going to go back to that, just to say it a different way.
Speaker C:We are on the precipice of mainstream again.
Speaker C:The heads are cresting, you know, the, the arc of the bridge.
Speaker D:And, and the bridge is knowledge.
Speaker C:Yes.
Speaker D:It's knowledge that builds trust in, in the capacity to understand the complexity.
Speaker D:Yeah.
Speaker D:Because if I, if I don't know what I don't know, then I have no idea.
Speaker D:Do I know 20% and I ought to know 100?
Speaker D:Do I know 80 of 100?
Speaker D:If I, if, if through information channels like this, you are expanding the knowledge of those making the decisions or those thinking about this saying there isn't that much more to know.
Speaker D:It is complex, but it's not that complex.
Speaker C:Correct.
Speaker C:It's not, it's not rocket science.
Speaker C:The, the.
Speaker C:Because only rocket science is rocket science.
Speaker B:That's exactly.
Speaker D:I know, I know a rocket scientist who says that rocket science isn't rocket science.
Speaker C:I bet his rockets crash.
Speaker C:But, but totally agree that the learning curve isn't.
Speaker C:It certainly isn't as steep as the demographic curve.
Speaker C:How about that?
Speaker C:So I think that's a good place.
Speaker D:And it is also not true that none of that other analytical experience around real estate is irrelevant to that space.
Speaker C:Correct.
Speaker D:There is a great deal of relevancy.
Speaker B:Absolutely.
Speaker D:And a, if you like it, maybe 10, 15% margin on either side of specialist knowledge that you need to have in order to understand it fully.
Speaker D:But it's not another 50.
Speaker B:And that's where the yield, opportunity is, I think.
Speaker C:And that, that ultimately drives everything or at least certainly drives the thirst for that knowledge.
Speaker D:Right.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker C:When you, when you frame it like.
Speaker D:That and if you add that to the data, the, the inevitable, what you like to call the inevitability of what the data is.
Speaker C:Right.
Speaker D:You add that to the sort of catch up of competence that needs to happen on an analytical, an investment framework thinking, then you can see that those two things are going to come together rapidly and when they do, then there'll be a vector effect, its own little big bang.
Speaker D:Yeah, it will be.
Speaker C:So I think that is a really good place for me to say something that Jared hates, which is I want to put a pin in that because every good episodic program has to end on a cliffhanger.
Speaker C:And, and this is the, Is this.
Speaker B:Going to be part one of a.
Speaker C:Multi part series with Sir Stephen, who shot Sir Stephen?
Speaker C:And we have to like, you know, wait to the, the next season to pick it up?
Speaker C:No, I think so, but we will absolutely pick up this conversation.
Speaker C:But before we leave, we here at the move like to have a little fun at the end and, and sort of put ourselves in the shoes of, of an investor and sort of having taken in having had the capacity to sort of hear and understand the topics that we've been discussing and then respond to a very simple question.
Speaker C:So Stephen, what's your move?
Speaker D:I think the first move has to be one of self reflection.
Speaker D:So if I'm listening here as a, as somebody responsible for private capital or small institutional capital that doesn't have a large department dedicated, I would be looking at my own practice and saying how true is what I've just heard does that, is that us?
Speaker D:Are we not engaging with health care because we think it's too, too complicated or to something we don't have the bandwidth or, or do we have any.
Speaker D:It was very simple, do we have any?
Speaker D:And if I don't have any, then the second move would be to ignite some curiosity in my analytics team and say let's just have a look at this.
Speaker D:Is this true?
Speaker D:Let's have a look at the data.
Speaker D:Let's go onto these guys nextcore's website and just download some of their white papers and start informing ourselves.
Speaker D:What are other people thinking?
Speaker D:Next time I go to a family office conference or maybe a specific real estate conference, just ask my colleagues, what are you doing in this space?
Speaker D:And then the third thing is once that curiosity has been ignited, if you can ignite curiosity, I'm not sure whether you can, once it's been engendered, can you rejuvenate juvenation?
Speaker D:I'm not sure.
Speaker D:Once we get once, once you've done that, then the third thing is to start looking at how that, how that new knowledge will allow me to create a center of, you know, growing area of, and analytical competence in order to make sound judgments in what the data will definitely tell them is an irrefutable path to or requirement for growth.
Speaker D:So those are the three moves that I would make.
Speaker D:And it will start with self reflection.
Speaker C:Well said.
Speaker C:Well, jd, it's been quite a ride.
Speaker B:It has been quite a ride.
Speaker C:I feel like we've moved so much.
Speaker C:I may have burned a few calories, but as we, as you and I think about this, this conversational journey that we had that has culminated in this very special conversation to kind of, you know, put a, put a bow on the first of what we hope, many more conversations down the road.
Speaker C:So taking it in sort of totality, I want to ask you, what's your move?
Speaker B:Take us back to the first episode.
Speaker B:It feels like a market where a lot of investors continue to do what's easy, what's known.
Speaker B:Maybe it's perceived risk.
Speaker B:And I think there's a distinction between risk and risky.
Speaker B:There is a market that is growing rapidly in health care, real estate.
Speaker B:I think the early movers, depending on how you make that assessment of who's an early mover, will benefit from taking some risk.
Speaker B:Not risky, but taking some risk.
Speaker B:That's where the opportunity is.
Speaker B:I would move to the risk.
Speaker C:I think you're absolutely right.
Speaker C:And here we go again.
Speaker C:Like, I mean, we're, you know, we're Siamese twins separated at birth.
Speaker C:Because I think when you take into account.
Speaker B:Is this your official move?
Speaker C:Oh, this is my official move.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Stephen gave three.
Speaker B:So I'm curious what you have.
Speaker C:He's, he's a taker.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker C:But, but I, I, I, I'm, I'm right there in step with you.
Speaker C:Because when you take into account the scarcity of opportunity.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker C:When you take into account the inevitability of the demographic trends that inform the thesis, when you take into account the obviousness of the role that healthcare and its delivery will play in the course of not just us, society, but society as a whole on a global basis, there is only one single word that is applicable, and that is move.
Speaker C:And with that, we have rap.
Speaker B:Well done, my friend.
Speaker C:Thank you, sir.
Speaker D:Steven, thank you.
Speaker A:Thanks for listening to the Move, a show exploring what's shaping the future of health care real estate.
Speaker A:If you liked what you heard, follow the show and share with someone.
Speaker A:You know, looking to make their next move.