Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:03
Hello listeners.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:03
Welcome to an emergency episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:06
We are gonna have a couple episodes today.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:08
The first is the short mini episode with Hamidreza Azizi.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:11
He has been on the podcast before.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:13
Um, he is a leading researcher and expert on Iran and Iranian security.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:19
Thank you to him for making the time.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:21
Um, this is a short 30 minute episode.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:22
We'll have come Ron on in a bit.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:24
Cousin Marco and I are doing an episode over on geopolitical cousins.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:27
I may have more after that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:28
I'm going after some Israeli security analysts too.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:30
Um, and it sounds like this is not gonna be a 24 hour thing, it sounds
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:33
like this is gonna be a many weeks long thing depend depending on how things.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:37
Escalate from here.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:38
So I'll do my best to keep you abreast and to bring you some perspectives.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:42
Um, take care of the people that you loved.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:45
Cheers and see you out there.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:49
Alright, well let's just start with the basics.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:52
Uh, so we're recording Friday morning, uh, here in the United States.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:55
It's 9 32 Central Time.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:57
Uh, we're gonna.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:58
We're not gonna sit on this content listeners.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:59
We'll push stuff out as we go, but even then, probably some things
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:02
will be overtaken by events.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:03
Um, but we've got our first expert on this morning.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:06
Um, Reza good, good to see you.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:07
Thank you for making the time.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:09
Um.
Jacob Shapiro:
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Let, let's start at the very simplest level.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:12
Like what, what are your first reactions to what's happened over the last 24 hours?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:15
I, I can tell you, I personally was pretty surprised.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:18
I put a note on our internal research platform yesterday that this seems
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:21
to be escalating quickly, but I, I wasn't thinking quite that quickly.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:24
So your first reactions I.
Hamidreza:
00:01:26
Hi, good morning.
Hamidreza:
00:01:27
Thank you for having me.
Hamidreza:
00:01:29
It's a pleasure to, uh, join you again.
Hamidreza:
00:01:33
Uh, maybe not in a very good or pleasant time.
Hamidreza:
00:01:37
Uh, so yeah, you're right.
Hamidreza:
00:01:38
I mean, it was also quite shocking to me.
Hamidreza:
00:01:42
Uh, we could already see, uh, signs of a perfect storm gathering,
Hamidreza:
00:01:47
but again, uh, and still.
Hamidreza:
00:01:50
Um, you know, reports about, uh, the, um, upcoming nuclear negotiations
Hamidreza:
00:01:57
between Iran and the United States in Oman, uh, scheduled for Sunday
Hamidreza:
00:02:01
and, and, and things like that.
Hamidreza:
00:02:03
That would be, uh, that could be seen as some, uh, you know,
Hamidreza:
00:02:07
assurances that at least.
Hamidreza:
00:02:10
Uh, in the, in a, a few days, uh, time window, there won't be any, uh, major
Hamidreza:
00:02:15
escalation, but, uh, here we are.
Hamidreza:
00:02:18
And, um, um, I think it was also quite striking to, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:02:24
the Iranian government as well.
Hamidreza:
00:02:26
Uh.
Hamidreza:
00:02:27
Uh, I can imagine and one would expect them to, uh, be quite
Hamidreza:
00:02:31
prepared, especially after all that happens, uh, to their allies in the
Hamidreza:
00:02:36
so-called access of resistance over the past year, and also did for TA
Hamidreza:
00:02:39
attacks, uh, the latest, uh, round of Israeli attacks on Iranian proper.
Hamidreza:
00:02:44
Uh, in October.
Hamidreza:
00:02:45
So given all that, uh, they must have been prepared.
Hamidreza:
00:02:48
But then, uh, we, uh, can see, uh, the scope of damage, both in terms of the, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:02:56
you know, kind of, uh, uh, the number of high ranking, uh, military commanders, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:03:02
killed in the, in, in the Israeli strikes.
Hamidreza:
00:03:04
And also, uh, the scope of the, the geographical scope
Hamidreza:
00:03:08
actually of the Israeli reach to.
Hamidreza:
00:03:11
Military sites.
Hamidreza:
00:03:11
And, and this raises, uh, significant questions about, uh, the, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:03:17
proper, uh, planning or kind of, uh, proper, uh, understanding actually
Hamidreza:
00:03:25
of what might come and, uh, how uh, they should be prepared for that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:33
It seems, at least from the initial damage, like you
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:35
said, that um, I mean maybe Iran was prepared, but it seems like Israel was
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:39
really able to neutralize air defense.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:41
I mean, it, it seems like, you know, Israel, I, I won't say have, has
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:44
control over Iranian skies, but Israel's talking about a two week long operation.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:48
Um, yeah, I was actually chatting with some of my fellow researchers
Jacob Shapiro:
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after the first reports of attacks.
Jacob Shapiro:
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We were like, ah, this is kind of timid.
Jacob Shapiro:
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And then no, Netanyahu comes out and then it's a second wave, and then it's a.
Jacob Shapiro:
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Third wave, but then you're starting to get reports about,
Jacob Shapiro:
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about some of the damage.
Jacob Shapiro:
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How can Iran respond?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:04
I think that's the big question here.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:05
I saw some initial reports that maybe there were some drones that were fired,
Jacob Shapiro:
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um, towards Israel, or sent towards Israel and Israel's already shot them down.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:13
Um, do you think that sort of Iran just sort of has to take the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:16
punch or, or is there going to be some kind of meaningful response
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:19
that they can engage in right now?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:21
'cause right now it seems like Israel has control over the situation.
Hamidreza:
00:04:25
Yeah, it seems very much so.
Hamidreza:
00:04:26
And uh, the thing is that, uh, air defense was already, and for a long time, the
Hamidreza:
00:04:30
weakest part in the, uh, overall, uh, map of Iranian, uh, kind of, uh, uh, military
Hamidreza:
00:04:37
infrastructure and, and military doctrine.
Hamidreza:
00:04:40
Uh, that was why actually.
Hamidreza:
00:04:43
Uh, they started working on, uh, this concept of forward defense
Hamidreza:
00:04:47
in the first place, you know, to, uh, basically compensate for, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:04:52
the lack of effective air defense.
Hamidreza:
00:04:54
And on that, uh, we should also, uh, uh, note that, uh, one element
Hamidreza:
00:05:01
is, uh, the kind of, uh, technology deficit, especially comparatively
Hamidreza:
00:05:06
speaking, you know, when it comes to.
Hamidreza:
00:05:09
Uh, what Israel has, for example, or other Iranian adversaries,
Hamidreza:
00:05:13
um, have in the region.
Hamidreza:
00:05:15
And the other one is of course about the vast geography, uh, uh, of Iran.
Hamidreza:
00:05:19
You know, so it's, uh, uh, quite difficult to have, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:05:23
proper air defense for all that.
Hamidreza:
00:05:24
So anyway, that was why they worked with, uh, non-state actors to,
Hamidreza:
00:05:28
uh, extend the geography of their, uh, defense and deterrents, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:05:32
far beyond the Iranian border.
Hamidreza:
00:05:33
So what happened over the past few months?
Hamidreza:
00:05:36
I mean, technically.
Hamidreza:
00:05:37
Uh, over the course of the war in Gaza and beyond, was that, uh, that
Hamidreza:
00:05:42
kind of, uh, forward defense, the.
Hamidreza:
00:05:44
A strategic depth of, of Iran, as they call it, uh, started to shrink.
Hamidreza:
00:05:50
And to the extent that, uh, you know, it was only Iraq and Yemen remaining.
Hamidreza:
00:05:56
And even on that, you know, there were serious, uh, doubts about the
Hamidreza:
00:06:00
extent to which they could engage.
Hamidreza:
00:06:02
Um, so.
Hamidreza:
00:06:03
Uh, that's why we see what we see because, uh, already in October, end of October,
Hamidreza:
00:06:08
the Israeli strikes, uh, they, uh, successfully neutralized, uh, parts of
Hamidreza:
00:06:13
the actually, uh, some key parts of the, uh, Iranian air defense, which were, uh.
Hamidreza:
00:06:20
Uh, the Russian made S3 hundreds and also some others.
Hamidreza:
00:06:23
Uh, so there was already this gap, and now it seems that, uh, in the, in the,
Hamidreza:
00:06:28
in the past month, despite, uh, a lot of efforts that, uh, we could see, they were
Hamidreza:
00:06:33
not really able to, uh, close that gap.
Hamidreza:
00:06:35
And together with, as I said, uh, the lack of proper.
Hamidreza:
00:06:40
Allied support in the region in terms of non safe allies and proxies.
Hamidreza:
00:06:44
Uh, they are in this, uh, kind of very, uh, uh, difficult situation.
Hamidreza:
00:06:48
So that's about, uh, the defense part on the oftens.
Hamidreza:
00:06:53
Uh, we can also, I mean, there is this, uh, kind of direct connection
Hamidreza:
00:06:57
between these two because, uh, uh, as far as I could tell, uh, there
Hamidreza:
00:07:01
were at least three phases in this.
Hamidreza:
00:07:04
Uh, in, in, in what seems to be actually the first round, only the
Hamidreza:
00:07:07
first round of Israeli attacks, as they say it's going to be, uh, to continue.
Hamidreza:
00:07:11
So there were three phases.
Hamidreza:
00:07:13
Uh, the first phase was, uh, seemed, I mean, they, they, they happened, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:07:18
more or less simultaneously, but I. Uh, or we can say maybe three main pillars.
Hamidreza:
00:07:22
So one was, uh, neutralizing, uh, Iranian, uh, military commanders, uh, together
Hamidreza:
00:07:29
with some, uh, nuclear scientists.
Hamidreza:
00:07:32
Uh, so in a sense, uh, trying to paralyze uh, strategic decision making on the top.
Hamidreza:
00:07:38
So this is quite reminiscent of what happened in Lebanon,
Hamidreza:
00:07:41
for example, with Hezbollah.
Hamidreza:
00:07:43
Uh, the top, uh, uh, Hezbollah, uh, commander structure.
Hamidreza:
00:07:46
Then, uh, the second pillar, or the second, uh, phase was, uh, to target, um,
Hamidreza:
00:07:53
uh, the, uh, military, uh, basically the, uh, uh, some of the, uh, missile bases and
Hamidreza:
00:08:00
also, uh, some on the ground, uh, nuclear facilities in this case, specifically
Hamidreza:
00:08:05
in Naans, uh, in, in central Iran.
Hamidreza:
00:08:08
Uh, so, uh.
Hamidreza:
00:08:11
The, the, the attacks on these have been ongoing.
Hamidreza:
00:08:14
Uh, I mean, last time we checked, uh, um, you know, kind of an hour
Hamidreza:
00:08:17
ago or so, it was still ongoing.
Hamidreza:
00:08:19
Uh, so it seems that, uh, to, to, to me, it seems like one of the reasons that,
Hamidreza:
00:08:24
uh, Iran has not responded yet, because one can imagine that they, uh, they
Hamidreza:
00:08:29
must have already had, uh, some plans ready for, uh, for retaliation, right?
Hamidreza:
00:08:34
Uh, so this kind of lack of.
Hamidreza:
00:08:36
Uh, or the loss of better to say, uh, top military command in, in charge of,
Hamidreza:
00:08:42
uh, decision making for retaliation.
Hamidreza:
00:08:44
And, uh, the damages that might have caused.
Hamidreza:
00:08:46
We still don't know the details to the missile, uh, basis might have caused this.
Hamidreza:
00:08:51
And the third and final so far, uh, the third pillar or third phase, uh, of this.
Hamidreza:
00:08:57
Uh, which is again, still seems to be ongoing, is, uh, to target what
Hamidreza:
00:09:01
has, what is left of Iran's air defense, especially concentrating
Hamidreza:
00:09:05
on, uh, western areas of Iran.
Hamidreza:
00:09:08
We saw frequent attacks on, on Tabriz, for example, on, uh, nausea.
Hamidreza:
00:09:13
Uh, a, um, uh, airb base, uh, in Hamadan, all located in.
Hamidreza:
00:09:18
Western Iran, northwest and west.
Hamidreza:
00:09:21
Uh, so on that, it seems that, uh, uh, there is an atom to kind of clear
Hamidreza:
00:09:26
the way for, uh, for future strikes, probably, uh, deeper inside the country.
Hamidreza:
00:09:32
Uh, probably, uh, with kind of, uh, more direct engagement
Hamidreza:
00:09:36
of Israeli, uh, airplanes, uh, kind of fighters that, sorry.
Hamidreza:
00:09:40
Uh.
Hamidreza:
00:09:40
Uh, uh, within the Iranian aerospace or things like that.
Hamidreza:
00:09:44
So, uh, this all has complicated Iranian response as far as I can tell.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:49
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:50
Um, you mentioned the proxies.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:52
So at least in Israeli media, I don't know how much credence to give this,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:55
uh, is reporting that has Hezbollah is saying they're not going to strike Israel.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:00
Um, which is, I mean, shocking.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:01
If that's true, who knows if it's true or if the Israeli media's trying to
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:04
shape the, the, the media ecosystem.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:06
You mentioned the Houthis.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:08
They successfully stood up to some United States airstrikes, you know, a
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:12
couple weeks, months ago to, uh, the surprise of President Donald Trump who
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:15
said he's had some kind of deal with the Houthis to not attack American interests.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:19
Um, obviously the Assad regime is gone and probably the elimination of Syrian
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:23
air defense, as we talked about on this podcast a couple weeks ago, has
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:26
something to do with the ease with which Israel has done some of these things.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:30
Um.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:31
Are there any proxies left?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:32
Are there any left standing?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:33
Do the Houthis like have a renewed campaign in them for the Persian Gulf?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:37
And I guess that also gets into the question of where do you think
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:40
the United States' role in this?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:41
Because at least last night when I went to sleep, Marco Rubio was
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:44
putting out statements saying.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:46
US has nothing to do with this.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:48
This is Israel alone.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:49
Like we urge all sides to calm down.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:52
And you wake up this morning and you've got Trump ranting on truth
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:55
social that this is a beautiful attack.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:56
And like, you know, I, I gave them a chance they can still come to the table
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:00
and you've got, you know, sources in both Axios, the Wall Street Journal saying yes.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:04
Not only did the United States.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:05
States know the United States intentionally made it seem like nothing
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:09
was happening in order to lull the Iranians into a false sense of security.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:13
Um, so do you think that the United States becomes involved in the Iranian reaction?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:17
Is Iran so weakened or chasten that it's not gonna go after us
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:21
Assets, like, help us think about the proxies and, and the US here.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:24
'cause this obviously goes, goes to more than just Israel and Iran.
Hamidreza:
00:11:28
I think this question actually lies in the heart of the Iranian
Hamidreza:
00:11:31
calculations right now because, uh, you know, whether or not to, uh, include the
Hamidreza:
00:11:36
United States in a potential response, uh, might be, um, might make the whole
Hamidreza:
00:11:41
situation quite different in terms of.
Hamidreza:
00:11:43
Uh, the consequences.
Hamidreza:
00:11:44
Let, let's just start with this last point you made about, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:11:47
you know, kind of whether or not the United States was involved.
Hamidreza:
00:11:51
I would say, I mean, in terms of, uh, the thinking and perception on the Iranian
Hamidreza:
00:11:54
side, no matter what Trump says, what rub says, what are the contradictions, it is
Hamidreza:
00:11:59
perceived and presented as a, a deception.
Hamidreza:
00:12:02
Strategy, uh, deliberately, uh, uh, uh, kind of designed and, uh, conducted by
Hamidreza:
00:12:08
the United States and Israel, uh, in order to, uh, uh, make sure that Iran,
Hamidreza:
00:12:14
uh, would be, uh, more or less unprepared for, uh, uh, for, for an Israeli attack.
Hamidreza:
00:12:20
You know, and there are actually, uh, some, uh, cases that.
Hamidreza:
00:12:24
Uh, the Iran expert community, for example, already before all this
Hamidreza:
00:12:28
happened would refer to warning about this potential scenario.
Hamidreza:
00:12:32
For example, uh, they would mention, uh, Stein, the former, um, uh, US
Hamidreza:
00:12:37
representative for, uh, for the Middle East going to Lebanon, negotiating
Hamidreza:
00:12:41
the ceasefire deal and the other day.
Hamidreza:
00:12:43
Some top Hezbollah, uh, leadership, you know, being assassinated by Israel.
Hamidreza:
00:12:48
So they were already warning about that, and now they say, look, this
Hamidreza:
00:12:50
is exactly what we were warning about and that now this is happening.
Hamidreza:
00:12:54
Uh, so, uh, on the Iranian side, this is, this is important in terms of, uh.
Hamidreza:
00:13:01
Their calculation of where we are, where we are, we are in a situation that, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:13:06
again, in their perception, we are in a situation that there is a coordinated,
Hamidreza:
00:13:11
uh, plan by the United States and Israel against us, uh, in which, of course,
Hamidreza:
00:13:16
the United States, uh, still has a lot to offer, which it has not, uh, you
Hamidreza:
00:13:20
know, uh, uh, brought on the table yet in terms of, uh, active participation.
Hamidreza:
00:13:25
Uh, so the question would be first, uh, is, uh.
Hamidreza:
00:13:30
Is it logical at this stage to escalate against the United States
Hamidreza:
00:13:34
and invite an even stronger response?
Hamidreza:
00:13:37
Why the United States and Israel?
Hamidreza:
00:13:38
And the second question, which would kind of answer the first
Hamidreza:
00:13:41
one as well, is that, um.
Hamidreza:
00:13:43
What would happen if we don't escalate?
Hamidreza:
00:13:46
Is it not going to happen anyway?
Hamidreza:
00:13:48
Is is it not that, uh, you know, at, at some point the United States will
Hamidreza:
00:13:51
come in after, uh, you know, the air, uh, defense, uh, I mean, kind of
Hamidreza:
00:13:55
Iranian, uh, aerospace is clear, uh, and so on, that they would come in.
Hamidreza:
00:14:01
Using their bunker busters, uh, to, uh, kind of, uh, you know,
Hamidreza:
00:14:06
destroy what is left of, of Iranian nuclear, uh, uh, facilities.
Hamidreza:
00:14:10
So I think this is again, one of the complexities that has, if
Hamidreza:
00:14:14
not paralyzed, actually delayed.
Hamidreza:
00:14:16
I. The decision making on, um, on the Iranian side.
Hamidreza:
00:14:20
So here we can say, uh, we can kind of a bit, uh, more clearly or with
Hamidreza:
00:14:27
more clarity, speak about, uh, the potential options that Iran may have.
Hamidreza:
00:14:30
So first of all, as I said, we still don't know how much damage has been
Hamidreza:
00:14:34
inflicted to, uh, the Iranian, uh, uh, uh, missile, uh, silos and, and,
Hamidreza:
00:14:39
uh, kind of missile missile stockpile.
Hamidreza:
00:14:42
Uh, even if we consider that, uh, there's a. Uh, the damage is not high.
Hamidreza:
00:14:49
Uh, then, uh, you know, uh, it would be a matter of whether Iran can
Hamidreza:
00:14:54
sustain a, a campaign of weeks of, for example, um, uh, continuous, um,
Hamidreza:
00:15:00
massive, uh, missile strikes against, uh, the United States, how big the
Hamidreza:
00:15:05
stockpile is, you know, uh, and here.
Hamidreza:
00:15:09
Uh, comes, uh, the US factor because, uh, as far as I know, at least
Hamidreza:
00:15:12
before the October 7th, and I don't still see any sign of, uh, an actual
Hamidreza:
00:15:16
revision of that military strategy.
Hamidreza:
00:15:18
So the traditional thinking in the Iranian, uh, uh, uh, military, uh.
Hamidreza:
00:15:24
Uh, circles has been that whatever happens, whether it is war
Hamidreza:
00:15:29
initiated by Israel or the United States, we'll uh, respond to both.
Hamidreza:
00:15:33
And that response would involve, uh, the US base in Iraq, but also
Hamidreza:
00:15:37
around the Persian Gulf, uh, in Kuwait, in Qatar, in in Bahrain.
Hamidreza:
00:15:41
So now the question, apart from how you the US will respond, is that
Hamidreza:
00:15:46
first, how is, uh, the situation, I mean, how this is going to.
Hamidreza:
00:15:50
B, in terms of implications for, uh, for Iranian allies in those countries, you
Hamidreza:
00:15:55
know, uh, given all the, uh, domestic resistance against this quote unquote
Hamidreza:
00:16:01
resistance supported by, uh, Iran, you know, and here comes, I mean, I, I I would
Hamidreza:
00:16:07
say, uh, there could be some, at least some level of credibility in the reports
Hamidreza:
00:16:11
that the, uh, that Hezbollah doesn't want to engage because the costs, uh, for
Hamidreza:
00:16:16
Hezbollah domestically would be so huge.
Hamidreza:
00:16:19
In a situation that it is quite weak.
Hamidreza:
00:16:20
And the same goes for, uh, uh, for the Iraqis, you know, and, uh, if
Hamidreza:
00:16:26
they want to escalate Iran itself, if, if they want to escalate against,
Hamidreza:
00:16:29
uh, against the US spaces in, uh, around the Gulf for example, then uh,
Hamidreza:
00:16:34
uh, the question would be, uh, so.
Hamidreza:
00:16:37
How would those countries react?
Hamidreza:
00:16:39
So Iran tried hard, uh, to have their support and uh, it worked
Hamidreza:
00:16:44
a lot on this approachment with Saudi Arabia, with other countries.
Hamidreza:
00:16:47
So it would evaporate, uh, overnight if Iran decides to, to do that.
Hamidreza:
00:16:52
And finally, on the HSIs, I think they are already at full capacity in
Hamidreza:
00:16:57
terms of, uh, uh, what they can do.
Hamidreza:
00:16:59
And, uh, it is not going to have a strategic impact on, uh, on
Hamidreza:
00:17:04
Israel and on top of all this.
Hamidreza:
00:17:07
We shouldn't forget, uh, the elephant in the room.
Hamidreza:
00:17:09
Israel is a nuclear armed state.
Hamidreza:
00:17:12
So, uh, this is, uh, what, uh, matters, uh, more than, uh, many people may think.
Hamidreza:
00:17:19
Right?
Hamidreza:
00:17:19
So, um, uh, if Iran response in a way that, um.
Hamidreza:
00:17:26
You know, there is a kind of significant, uh, human casualties or so on.
Hamidreza:
00:17:31
Uh, is it not going to be the case?
Hamidreza:
00:17:33
Is it not a plausible scenario after all Israel has done in the region?
Hamidreza:
00:17:37
Uh, trying to assert the assumption that we, we, we, we have no red lines,
Hamidreza:
00:17:43
cannot be, cannot, cannot, cannot this be the case that, uh, you know,
Hamidreza:
00:17:47
they may even resort to some sort of a nuclear escalation against Iran.
Hamidreza:
00:17:51
So it's much more complex than, uh, just, uh, uh.
Hamidreza:
00:17:55
Kind of, uh, how to say material, uh, capabilities that Iran might have.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:00
Mm-hmm.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:01
And it, it, it doesn't sound based on what you're saying, that
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:03
Iran has a whole lot of cards.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:05
Maybe they have something up their sleeve once they get together, but it seems like
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:08
they're in a pretty difficult position.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:10
Um, I know you've got a lot going on, so I'll, I'll get you
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:12
outta here on this last question.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:14
Um, to me at least, analytically the biggest.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:16
I mean, there are so many questions about this and so much of what we know
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:19
is probably gonna change over time.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:20
Like these initial reports are really, um, it's hard to parse through.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:23
So I'm cognizant of not wanting to get too far down with the information that we
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:26
do have, but, um, at least analytically, it's unclear to me at least whether this
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:31
is an attack against Iran's nuclear.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:33
I. Capability, including the human capital around it.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:36
You sort of talked about some of the scientists that were assassinated, you
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:38
know, folks that were associated with the negotiation process on the nuclear deal,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:42
you know, generals, things like that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:44
But then also, you know, there's also a, a take forming out there,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:48
which is, well, no, this is actually maybe an attempt at regime change.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:51
Um, and if you listen to Netanyahu's seven minute speech last night, he talked
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:55
about how this is, you know, we, we have no problem with the Iranian people.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:58
We want the Iranian people to rise up against.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:00
Tyranny and this, this government that we don't like.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:03
Um, and, you know, assertions that well if they can get, you know, the head
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:07
of the IRGC and if they can get all of these special negotiators does is hamdi.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:12
Next on the assassination list, is there a second wave where they
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:15
start going after the president?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:17
Or the supreme leader himself.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:19
Um, does that destabilize the situation?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:22
Is it already destabilized because younger cadres in the IRGC or the military are
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:26
seeing Iranian weakness and wanting to respond and are less conservative than
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:30
maybe some of their former leaders Were.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:32
And just with what we know so far, and I know it's imperfect,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:35
like how do you see that?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:36
Do you think that's what Israel's pushing for?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:37
Do you think they have a chance?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:39
Are you concerned about the fate of the Supreme leader and what
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:41
happens to, to Iran if Israel's able to pull some of these things off?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:45
I mean, these are questions I couldn't have imagined asking
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:47
24 hours ago, but here we are.
Hamidreza:
00:19:50
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
Hamidreza:
00:19:50
I mean, um, so.
Hamidreza:
00:19:54
I think, uh, the way that, uh, Israel conducted the, I mean, apart from the, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:20:00
the actual damage and, and, uh, how it is already impacted, it has already impacted,
Hamidreza:
00:20:05
uh, Iran's military and, and, uh, potentially also nuclear infrastructure.
Hamidreza:
00:20:10
There's a clear, uh, strategic messaging here, you know.
Hamidreza:
00:20:14
For example, IIR Ji, the commander of the IRG Air Space Force,
Hamidreza:
00:20:19
which who was also killed.
Hamidreza:
00:20:21
Uh, he is said to, um, have been in a meeting with like 20 other commanders
Hamidreza:
00:20:27
of, of the same force, uh, in a, um, you know, eligibly safe place.
Hamidreza:
00:20:32
So the message.
Hamidreza:
00:20:33
Of, uh, targeting all these individuals without difficulty is that the only
Hamidreza:
00:20:37
reason that Harmony is still alive, that we is, that we didn't want to kill him.
Hamidreza:
00:20:41
Uh, so that is the, uh, source of, uh, signal that you, you can get, uh, from,
Hamidreza:
00:20:48
um, uh, between the lines actually.
Hamidreza:
00:20:51
So yeah, the method, I mean, uh, the signal that we can get from kind of.
Hamidreza:
00:20:55
Uh, this bet, uh, between the lines, uh, signaling is that, uh, we can reach
Hamidreza:
00:21:01
wherever we want, uh, uh, in Iran.
Hamidreza:
00:21:03
And this is kind of, this is already huge in terms of, uh, how it is
Hamidreza:
00:21:07
impacting the mindset of, uh, the regime loyalists actually, uh, in
Hamidreza:
00:21:12
Iran who were, as I said, already calling for a significant overhaul,
Hamidreza:
00:21:18
a kind of, you know, fundamental.
Hamidreza:
00:21:20
Rethinking of Iranian, uh, uh, military strategy.
Hamidreza:
00:21:24
Uh, those were the same people who were, uh, calling for an immediate
Hamidreza:
00:21:28
withdrawal from the NPT and, uh, building a nuclear weapon.
Hamidreza:
00:21:31
And by the way, this goes back to your, uh, uh, to our, uh, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:21:36
pri to the previous point that we discussed in terms of Iran's option.
Hamidreza:
00:21:39
So this might still be on the table and even, uh, uh, kind of, uh.
Hamidreza:
00:21:44
More serious than, uh, than before, you know, leaving N pt,
Hamidreza:
00:21:47
uh, start working on, uh, kind of weaponizing the nuclear program.
Hamidreza:
00:21:52
It may take a, a long time, you know, under, uh, continued, uh, airstrike.
Hamidreza:
00:21:57
But, uh, this, this, uh, can be, uh, one way of.
Hamidreza:
00:22:02
Actually, uh, when I think of how, uh, how would, uh, kind of manage this despite
Hamidreza:
00:22:08
all the complexities that I said, all the questions that they need to answer before,
Hamidreza:
00:22:13
uh, doing something, um, ironically, this might be, uh, the least, uh, costly
Hamidreza:
00:22:20
option at this moment because, you know.
Hamidreza:
00:22:23
Uh, it somehow it could potentially reduce the risk of an immediate,
Hamidreza:
00:22:27
uh, escalation involving the United States, uh, buying some time at the
Hamidreza:
00:22:31
same time, uh, working on, uh, what you can consider as, uh, the ultimate
Hamidreza:
00:22:38
deterrence against, uh, against Israel, which is, uh, which is nuclear program.
Hamidreza:
00:22:41
So, uh, this is a very serious option and I think, uh, and I can imagine
Hamidreza:
00:22:47
that, uh, Kini is under pressure now more than before by people around him.
Hamidreza:
00:22:51
Uh, to authorize this and, uh, of course we don't know, uh, to what
Hamidreza:
00:22:56
extent, uh, they have already made progress in actual weaponization.
Hamidreza:
00:23:01
You know, with Udia, it's not just about uranium enrichment,
Hamidreza:
00:23:03
it's about delivery systems.
Hamidreza:
00:23:05
It's about all this, uh, like nuclear war has, uh, et cetera, et cetera.
Hamidreza:
00:23:09
Uh, but then that can be one way of mitigating this, uh, whole.
Hamidreza:
00:23:14
Uh, kind of risk of the situation, but in any case, look, uh, you
Hamidreza:
00:23:19
mentioned Naton Young, for example.
Hamidreza:
00:23:21
Uh, and, uh, we've seen a very sophisticated and, and coordinated,
Hamidreza:
00:23:27
uh, psychological, uh, campaign at the same time as this military
Hamidreza:
00:23:31
campaign is, is going on using social media, losing official channels,
Hamidreza:
00:23:35
using Persian speaking media.
Hamidreza:
00:23:37
Um, to transmit this message to the Iranian public that we actually are,
Hamidreza:
00:23:41
uh, we are not at war, uh, with you.
Hamidreza:
00:23:44
We are at war with, uh, uh, a system, with a regime, which is, uh, kind of,
Hamidreza:
00:23:49
which has been cruel to you as well.
Hamidreza:
00:23:52
Uh, so we actually have a common enemy, and believe me, uh, there are people
Hamidreza:
00:23:55
who, I mean, what I can, what I can get from, uh, you know, uh, surfing, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:24:02
through social media, from talking to people in Iran, there's a kind of dual.
Hamidreza:
00:24:06
Uh, emotions.
Hamidreza:
00:24:07
You know, uh, on one hand I could say many people, uh, are not really, uh, how to
Hamidreza:
00:24:14
say, uh, uh, upset about, uh, some IRGC Commander, even the top IRGC commander
Hamidreza:
00:24:20
being assassinated because they see them complicit in, in, in killing, uh, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:24:25
young people, uh, protestors, et cetera.
Hamidreza:
00:24:27
But on the other hand, there's a huge concern.
Hamidreza:
00:24:30
There's huge worry, uh, for example.
Hamidreza:
00:24:33
Uh, uh, when it comes to, uh, potential further effects on nuclear installations,
Hamidreza:
00:24:37
about, uh, the kind of radiation and so on, uh, to what extent Israel is
Hamidreza:
00:24:42
going to move forward, uh, uh, targets, uh, civilian infrastructure, economic
Hamidreza:
00:24:47
infrastructure, how it's going to impact their lives, uh, in the longer term.
Hamidreza:
00:24:52
So.
Hamidreza:
00:24:53
I can see, uh, and, and hear, uh, my, my answer to the last part of
Hamidreza:
00:24:58
your question, which is actually, uh, the first point you asked about in
Hamidreza:
00:25:02
terms of, uh, uh, the actual impact.
Hamidreza:
00:25:05
So.
Hamidreza:
00:25:06
I think, um, it is, uh, the kind of, uh, a gamble I would say, uh, uh, by Israel
Hamidreza:
00:25:13
counting on this, uh, growing gap, uh, between a state and society, uh, in Iran
Hamidreza:
00:25:19
and trying to, uh, kind of, uh, uh, uh, increased pressure on, uh, the Islamic
Hamidreza:
00:25:26
Republic, uh, uh, from both fronts.
Hamidreza:
00:25:29
But the thing is that, I mean, two, uh, two, two challenges to this strategy.
Hamidreza:
00:25:33
At least two challenges.
Hamidreza:
00:25:34
First.
Hamidreza:
00:25:35
Uh, it can backfire in the sense that, uh, more civilian casualties,
Hamidreza:
00:25:40
especially in the expected, uh, um, you know, uh, future rounds of
Hamidreza:
00:25:44
attacks can change the public mood.
Hamidreza:
00:25:47
And believe me, I'm an Iranian.
Hamidreza:
00:25:48
I can tell you that, uh, uh, Iranian people are very emotional and,
Hamidreza:
00:25:53
uh, it can change really overnight in terms of how they think,
Hamidreza:
00:25:57
how, how they see the situation.
Hamidreza:
00:25:59
And, uh, it's still difficult to speak of.
Hamidreza:
00:26:02
Uh.
Hamidreza:
00:26:03
Rally around the flag effects, but, uh, it is not, uh, it
Hamidreza:
00:26:06
cannot be totally ruled out.
Hamidreza:
00:26:08
So this is one thing.
Hamidreza:
00:26:09
And second, exactly, because the Islamic Republic sees this pressure from both
Hamidreza:
00:26:15
sides, and this has been a scenario.
Hamidreza:
00:26:16
They, they, they try to, uh, uh, avoid for a long, long time.
Hamidreza:
00:26:22
Uh, it may actually push them toward the extreme because, uh, what option
Hamidreza:
00:26:26
is left for you, uh, externally.
Hamidreza:
00:26:29
Uh, one can imagine, okay, this can be, uh, sold by Iran going to the
Hamidreza:
00:26:34
table as President Trump has suggested, again, surrendering everything.
Hamidreza:
00:26:38
And this time I would say it's not just about Iran, not enriching
Hamidreza:
00:26:41
uranium, but also, you know, the whole missile program, the wrong program,
Hamidreza:
00:26:44
et cetera, regional, uh, in order to stop the attacks if you can stop it.
Hamidreza:
00:26:49
But then what kind of image, uh, it would, uh, project, uh, uh, domestically.
Hamidreza:
00:26:54
Uh, so by.
Hamidreza:
00:26:56
Uh, surrendering in, in, in, in, uh, one front.
Hamidreza:
00:27:01
Like, uh, I mean, what they, they can see as, as capitulation on one front.
Hamidreza:
00:27:06
Uh, you already, uh, lose the, the second front as well.
Hamidreza:
00:27:11
So this is what they, uh, what what can call if they can.
Hamidreza:
00:27:15
Uh, you know, uh, rethink.
Hamidreza:
00:27:17
I mean, if, if they can, uh, gather what is left of, of their, uh,
Hamidreza:
00:27:21
strategic decision making and decide what they want to do, they may escalate
Hamidreza:
00:27:25
actually on both fronts in terms of, uh, securitization of domestic sphere
Hamidreza:
00:27:30
and also, uh, doubling down on, on, on the, uh, external side, which would.
Hamidreza:
00:27:36
Involved, uh, going for a nuclear weapon.
Hamidreza:
00:27:39
As I said,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:42
Hamza, I know we're not gonna have answers here.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:44
We're mostly providing questions and frameworks, but thank you for
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:46
coming on and I hope that, um.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:49
Well, I don't know what I hope for, but I, I know that I hope that you will
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:52
come back on in a couple more days as some of the dust settles and we try
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:55
and analyze some of what's happening.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:56
But in the meantime, thank you for being generous with your time
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:59
and your perspective and, um, you know, we'll see you soon.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:01
Always a
Hamidreza:
00:28:02
pleasure.
Hamidreza:
00:28:02
Thank you for having me.
Hamidreza:
00:28:03
Yeah.
Hamidreza:
00:28:04
Have a great day.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:07
Thank you so much for listening to the Jacob Shapiro podcast.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:10
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Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:12
By Jacob Mian, and it's in, in many ways, the Jacob Show.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:16
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Jacob Shapiro:
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