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The 4% Rule: Why It Might Be Costing You Years of Freedom
Episode 11914th May 2026 • Wealth Decisions by Brian • Brian D Muller (AAMS©) (BFA™)
00:00:00 00:09:18

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Most retirement calculators are built on a 40-year-old rule that could be costing you a decade of your freedom. After 25 years as a fiduciary financial advisor, I've seen this firsthand — and the math tells a very different story.

In this video, I break down why you may need 50% less to retire than you've been told — and exactly how to calculate your real number using a 2-phase approach. I also answer the question nobody else is answering in this conversation: what do you do about health insurance before Medicare kicks in?

What you'll learn: → Why the 4% rule overstates how much most people need — by hundreds of thousands of dollars → The 2-Phase Retirement Method (Bridge + Core) and how to calculate each → How ACA marketplace subsidies can dramatically cut healthcare costs in early retirement → Why the bridge years are a golden window for Roth conversions — and how to use them → What to do if you're already "on track" — you may be able to retire years earlier than planned

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Retirement Number Myth

01:08 Why the 4% Rule Fails

02:07 Two-Phase Retirement Plan

02:58 Bridge Phase Breakdown

03:32 Health Insurance Before Medicare

04:53 Core Phase With Social Security

05:47 Putting the Numbers Together

06:09 You May Be Ahead

07:00 Health Benefits of Retiring Earlier

07:33 Three-Step Action Plan

08:15 Work With Me and Resources

08:47 Final Thoughts and Subscribe

SCHEDULE A DISCOVERY ZOOM: https://calendly.com/brian-d-muller/zoom-discovery-call

Get Your Risk Number by taking the FREE RISK ASSESSMENT: https://pro.riskalyze.com/embed/da35a673b96655a2f2b1

Pick up a copy of my book "Momentous Decisions: 7 Steps to Better Health, More Wealth, and a Richer Life" at: https://www.momentouswealthadvisors.com/book

Transcripts

Speaker A:

If someone told you that you might need 50% less to retire than you've been told, would you believe them?

Speaker A:

Or would you think it's too good to be true?

Speaker A:

Here's the thing.

Speaker A:

Most retirement advice is built around a single number.

Speaker A:

And that number is almost always wrong.

Speaker A:

Not by a little, but by hundreds of thousands of dollars in 25 years.

Speaker A:

As a financial advisor, I've sat across the table from couples who delayed retirement by five years or even a decade.

Speaker A:

Not because they had to, but because no one showed them the real math.

Speaker A:

Today, I'm going to show you exactly that.

Speaker A:

And I'm going to answer the one question that nobody else in this conversation is answering.

Speaker A:

What do you do about health insurance before Medicare kicks in?

Speaker A:

So here's the problem and why the standard number is wrong.

Speaker A:

If you turn on any financial news channel, search YouTube.

Speaker A:

What do you hear?

Speaker A:

You need 1.5 million to retire.

Speaker A:

million by:

Speaker A:

46% Of Americans aren't saving enough.

Speaker A:

These headlines aren't lying, exactly, but they're built on a rule that's 40 years old, applied rigidly to a world that doesn't behave that way anymore.

Speaker A:

That rule is the 4% rule.

Speaker A:

It goes like this.

Speaker A:

Figure out what you want to spend, practice per year, divide that by 4%, and that's your retirement number.

Speaker A:

So if you want $90,000 a year in retirement, the 4% rule tells you 90,000 divided by 0.04 is 2.25 million.

Speaker A:

That feels impossible for most people.

Speaker A:

And that's exactly the problem, because the 4% rule assumes something that human beings never actually do.

Speaker A:

It assumes you'll spend the exact same amount, adjusted for inflation, every single year for 30 years, regardless of the market, regardless of your Social Security, and regardless of whether you're 62 or 82.

Speaker A:

Real retirees don't behave that way.

Speaker A:

And that gap between the rule and the reality, that's where your extra years of freedom are hiding.

Speaker A:

So let's talk about the real math, and I'm going to use a two phased approach to show you this.

Speaker A:

Here's how I've helped clients rethink their retirement number.

Speaker A:

Instead of one giant target, we split retirement into two phases.

Speaker A:

Phase number one is the bridge, the years between when you stop working and when Social Security begins.

Speaker A:

For most people retiring in their late 50s or early 60s, that's roughly five to 10 years.

Speaker A:

Phase two is the core everything from Social Security age forward.

Speaker A:

And this is where the math changes, changes dramatically because now you have a guaranteed income floor Underneath you.

Speaker A:

So let me use the same example.

Speaker A:

A couple return at 60 wanting $90,000 a year.

Speaker A:

Social Security of 60,000 kicks in at 67.

Speaker A:

Let's walk through what they actually need.

Speaker A:

So phase one, the bridge, including health care.

Speaker A:

And this is from age 60 to age 67.

Speaker A:

The first two years.

Speaker A:

I recommend a cash cushion.

Speaker A:

No market risk.

Speaker A:

That's 180,000 set aside in high yield savings and short term CDs for years three through seven.

Speaker A:

We fund with bonds.

Speaker A:

Conservative and predictable.

Speaker A:

Present value on that income stream at a 2%.

Speaker A:

Real return comes out to be roughly about a 408,000.

Speaker A:

So your total bridge cost 180,000 plus 408,000, which equals 588,000.

Speaker A:

Now here's where every other video stops and where I need to go a little further.

Speaker A:

Health care Retiring before 65 means you're not yet on Medicare.

Speaker A:

And if you're not covered by an employer, you need a plan.

Speaker A:

Here's what I tell most clients.

Speaker A:

First, if your income in early retirement is modest, incomes primarily from portfolio withdrawals, you may qualify for substantial ACA marketplace subsidies.

Speaker A:

Many of my clients pay as little as 200 to $400 a month per person in their early retirement years by carefully managing their taxable income.

Speaker A:

Second, these early bridge years are actually a golden window for Roth conversions.

Speaker A:

Your taxable income is lower, your tax bracket is lower, and you can systematically move money from pre tax to Roth accounts at a fraction of what you pay later.

Speaker A:

This strategy alone can save some clients six figures in lifetime taxes.

Speaker A:

So yes, healthcare is a real cost to plan for, but it's manageable.

Speaker A:

Budget 800 to $1,500 a month for a couple, or potentially far less if you're strategic about your income.

Speaker A:

I'd add roughly 70,000 to 100,000 to your bridge calculation as a health care reserve.

Speaker A:

So your revised bridge total is approximately 660,000 to 690,000.

Speaker A:

Phase two is the core.

Speaker A:

Ages 67 plus.

Speaker A:

Once Social Security begins, the math transforms.

Speaker A:

Our couple is now getting $60,000 a year.

Speaker A:

It grows with it's for life.

Speaker A:

They only need to draw 30,000 from their portfolio, not 90,000.

Speaker A:

And here's what the research shows.

Speaker A:

When your portfolio only needs to cover a modest portion of your expenses, you can actually use a higher withdrawal rate between 5 and 6% without meaningfully increasing your risk of running out of money.

Speaker A:

So take 30,000 divided by 5.5%.

Speaker A:

That's roughly 545,000 in the core portfolio.

Speaker A:

But here's the key.

Speaker A:

You need to set aside today only about 385,000 to have 545,000 waiting when you need it.

Speaker A:

So let me put this all together.

Speaker A:

The bridge 660 to 690,000.

Speaker A:

This includes your health care.

Speaker A:

The discounted core 385,000.

Speaker A:

That's a total of about 1 million.

Speaker A:

That's roughly a 52% reduction in what you need from 2.25 million to just over 1 million million.

Speaker A:

Now let's flip the question.

Speaker A:

What if you've been doing the math the old way and you're already on track for 1.5 million or 2 million?

Speaker A:

That's not a sign you need to keep grinding.

Speaker A:

That might be a sign you can retire five to 10 years earlier than you plan.

Speaker A:

Let's say you have 1.5 million at 58 and you were planning to work till age 67.

Speaker A:

With phase based planning and even a modest 5% annual growth, your bridge phase costs are covered and your core portfolio arrives at 67 larger than you need.

Speaker A:

You weren't behind, you were ahead and nobody told you.

Speaker A:

This is what I see again and again.

Speaker A:

As a fiduciary financial advisor, the biggest tragedy isn't people who run out of money in retirement.

Speaker A:

It's people who had the freedom to retire earlier, but stayed trapped by a rule that wasn't really designed for them in this day and age.

Speaker A:

And one more thing I'll add, and this is from my 25 years in financial planning and my certification as a life and health coach.

Speaker A:

The research on longevity is clear.

Speaker A:

Retiring earlier when you're still healthy enough to enjoy it has significant positive effects on both your physical and mental health.

Speaker A:

The stress of overworking in your late 50s and early 60s carries real health costs that don't show up in any retirement calculator.

Speaker A:

The the best wealth decision is often the best health decision as well.

Speaker A:

So here's your wealth decision challenge for today.

Speaker A:

Three things Run your retirement number using the two phase method I showed you.

Speaker A:

Take your annual spending goal, subtract your expected Social Security and you'll quickly see how much smaller your core portfolio needs to be.

Speaker A:

2.

Speaker A:

If you're between 50 and 65, get a quote on ACA Marketplace plans for your state.

Speaker A:

Many people are shocked at how affordable this is.

Speaker A:

With proper income planning, it might remove the biggest barrier standing between you and early retirement.

Speaker A:

And three look at a Roth conversion strategy.

Speaker A:

Those bridge years before Social Security, before RMDs, are often the lowest tax bracket years of your life.

Speaker A:

Use them if you want to go deeper on any of this, especially the math around your specific situation.

Speaker A:

You can schedule a discovery call with me.

Speaker A:

I'll find out what's important to you and we can dig into this to help you make a better wealth decision for you and your family.

Speaker A:

I also recently put out a book called Momentous Decisions where I go over a nine step plan to retire and stay comfortably retired and a plan to live a richer retirement.

Speaker A:

If you'd like to get a copy of my book there'll be a link in the description of this episode.

Speaker A:

And if this video helped you reframed how you think about retirement, share it with someone who's been told they're behind.

Speaker A:

They might be further ahead than they know.

Speaker A:

And also make sure you subscribe to the channel.

Speaker A:

I put out content every week to help you make better wealth decisions so that you can live a richer life.

Speaker A:

Once again this is Brian the wealth decisions guy.

Speaker A:

Thanks for listening and I hope to see you next week.

Speaker A:

Sam.

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