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S8, Ep 2: January Fishing Forecast: Weather Patterns and Musky Tips with Matt Reilly
Episode 28th January 2026 • The Articulate Fly • The Articulate Fly
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Episode Overview

The Articulate Fly kicks off 2026 with the first Southwest Virginia Fishing Report featuring guide Matt Reilly, who breaks down winter musky strategies for navigating January's unpredictable conditions in Southwest Virginia's river systems. Matt explains how musky concentrate in specific locations during cold water periods (upper 30s to low 40s) and why cloudy, warm days create ideal winter fishing opportunities. The conversation covers tactical approaches for fishing through temperature swings, managing variable weather fronts and the concentrated fish behavior that makes winter musky fishing productive when anglers fish intentionally. Matt also discusses his 2026 booking calendar, upcoming smallmouth pre-spawn season and his appearance at the Buckeye United Fly Fishers show in Cincinnati. This report delivers practical insight for serious predator anglers targeting musky during the challenging but rewarding winter season, with additional perspective on spring striper opportunities and the year ahead without periodical cicada hatches.

Key Takeaways

  1. How to locate winter musky by understanding that colder water temperatures concentrate fish into specific, predictable locations rather than spreading them throughout a system.
  2. Why cloudy, warm days with water temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s create optimal winter musky conditions despite variable January weather patterns.
  3. When to adjust your approach for cold water musky fishing by being more intentional about location selection rather than avoiding winter conditions altogether.

Techniques & Gear Covered

Matt Reilly emphasizes the importance of intentional, location-focused fishing during winter musky conditions. The discussion centers on tactical approaches for cold water periods when fish are concentrated rather than dispersed, requiring anglers to be strategic about where they invest their time and energy. Matt explains how water temperature fluctuations between the low 30s and low 40s influence fish behavior and how managing frontal systems and variable weather conditions factors into successful winter musky pursuits. The report also touches on Matt's smallmouth fly patterns and his approach to pre-spawn smallmouth tactics as the calendar moves toward late winter and early spring transitions.

Locations & Species

This Southwest Virginia Fishing Report focuses on Matt Reilly's home waters in Southwest Virginia, primarily targeting musky during the winter season. The discussion covers river systems experiencing variable January conditions, with water temperatures ranging from the low 30s (with ice) to the low 40s during warming trends. Matt also discusses upcoming opportunities for pre-spawn smallmouth bass in late winter and early spring and striper fishing scheduled for April and May. The region's fisheries demonstrate the characteristic boom-and-bust weather patterns of mid-Atlantic winters, where 70-degree days can give way to frozen conditions within a week, making day-by-day assessment critical for successful winter fishing.

FAQ / Key Questions Answered

How do cold water temperatures affect winter musky location and behavior?

Matt explains that cold water and ice don't necessarily shut down musky fishing but rather concentrate fish into very specific locations. The colder conditions are, the more packed fish tend to be in predictable spots. When water temperatures start warming up during comfortable weather windows, these concentrated fish can become quite active while remaining in those same predictable locations, making winter fishing productive for anglers who understand where to focus their efforts.

What are the ideal weather conditions for winter musky fishing in Southwest Virginia?

The sweet spot for winter musky is cloudy, warm weather combined with water temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Matt describes these conditions as "just money" for musky fishing. While January and early February are wild cards due to variable weather patterns that can swing from 70-degree days to frozen rivers within a week, understanding these temperature and weather combinations helps anglers capitalize on the best winter windows.

Why does intentional fishing matter more during cold water periods?

During cold conditions, musky are packed into specific places rather than spread throughout the river system. This concentration requires anglers to be more deliberate about their location choices and approach rather than covering water randomly. Managing time and energy efficiently becomes easier when you know exactly where fish are going to be, and this predictability is part of what makes winter fishing effective despite the challenging conditions.

Related Content

S6, Ep 146 - Musky Mysteries: Winter Tactics and Fly Tying Tips with Matt Reilly

S7, Ep 1 - Winter Fly Tying and Pre-Spawn Tips with Matt Reilly

S7, Ep 19 - Weathering the Winds: March Fishing Insights and Pre-Spawn Strategies with Matt Reilly

S6, Ep 112 - Smallmouth Transitions and Musky Prep: Matt Reilly's Southwest VA Update

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Transcripts

Marvin Cash:

st Virginia Fishing Report of:

Matt Reilly:

I'm doing pretty good, man. How are you?

Marvin Cash:

Just trying to stay out of trouble. Was Santa Claus good to you?

Matt Reilly:

He was, yeah, he was, he was better to my kids. But we, we all had a good time on Christmas.

Marvin Cash:

Well, that's awesome. And you know, it's kind of funny.

We'll talk about show season stuff in a bit, but you know, we've had kind of that same kind of uneven weather pattern here recently where I think this week is going to get up at least where we are into the 70s, I think where you are in the 60s, and then it's going to drop back into the freezer locker in about five to seven days.

Matt Reilly:

Yeah, I think we got a couple of highs around 60 this week, and then about Sunday it's gonna, I saw a high of 39 and it's gonna be kind of more seasonal from, you know, for the next several days after that, which, you know, I have this conversation with folks all the time, particularly, you know, people want to know, you know, musky dates, when's the best month, et cetera, et cetera.

And January and the first half of February really is kind of like the biggest wild card because it could be, you know, last year by the middle of January we had a frozen river and then it was blown out and it was frozen again and. But you know, at least two of the last four or five years we've had some 70, 75 degree, just beautiful, spectacular mid January days too.

So it's, it's pretty hard to pin down. You just kind of have to take it day by day. But we do have some phenomenal weather this week.

Marvin Cash:

Yeah, I guess the sweet spot would be cloudy and warm, right?

Matt Reilly:

Cloudy and warm. Man, if you, you have the water temps down in like the, you know, upper 30s, low 40s, and it'd be cloudy and warm in January. That's just money.

Marvin Cash:

Yeah, so. So what are you seeing on the water with the muskie?

Matt Reilly:

It's been, it's been pretty good business as usual. You know, back before Christmas we had some pretty cold weather too. There's a lot of ice, you know, low 30s, water temps here and there.

But you know, frankly, I've only musky fished a couple of days between here and Christmas and, or been on the water and it's been, it's, it's been pretty good, you know, warmer weather. We're still dealing with some wind, you know, get it. And that's just part of the yo yo and you know, temperatures and fronts and stuff.

But like tomorrow they're calling for 15 miles an hour and then the day after that it's going to be 60 and you know, 0 to 3. So things have been pretty good. And you know, just relative to all those water, those air temperatures, water temperatures bounce around a fair bit.

I say this every year. A cold, cold water ice, all that stuff doesn't really scare me that much. Fishing can still be great.

It just, you know, just something to take into consideration. Usually the colder things are the more kind of packed into very specific places those fish tend to be.

So you just have to be a little more intentional about how you fish.

But yeah, I mean that's, that's sort of why or part of the reason why the fishing can be so good this time of year if the weather is decent is because those fish really are packed into, you know, specific locations and then the water starts warming up and you get some really comfortable weather and, and they can, they can get pretty frisky for a little while but, but still be pretty predictable in location. So, you know, business as usual.

Marvin Cash:

Yeah. Which is good, right? Keeps the, keeps you from blowing your shoulder out.

Matt Reilly:

Yeah, yeah, you can, you can kind of manage your, manage your time and your energy really well when you know exactly where the fish are going to be.

Marvin Cash:

Yeah.

And so you know folks, as we always do at the beginning of the new year, we do the drawing for all the people that submitted questions last year and that we used on the fishing report. And before I announce the winner, Matt, you want to let, let folks know what the winner's gonna get.

Matt Reilly:

Yeah. Some flies, some of my kind of go to smallmouth flies. Some different stuff I've been messing around with the last couple of years.

And a couple of stickers, rod company and, and you know, fishing company stickers I got laying around.

Marvin Cash:

Well, there you go. Well, listen, the lucky winner is Josh Fleener. Josh, I will connect you with Matt. Congratulations and thanks for being a listener.

Matt Reilly:

Yeah, awesome, dude. I know Josh. I've been talking to him a fair bit about some flies and fish, some of his stuff and I think I've got some that, that he's curious about.

So that'll be good. I'm happy to excited to send him some of that stuff.

Marvin Cash:

Yeah, absolutely. And before we start talking about show season stuff, I saw your most recent email, which I knew you had an office day. Right.

So you listed all of your open dates. You want to kind of give folks a flavor for kind of what you have for muskie and then heading into smallmouth for this year.

Matt Reilly:

Yeah, I think as far as muskie goes, it's, it's mostly like the back half of January, front half of February, and then, you know, just some dates kind of sprinkled throughout there and then definitely starting to talk pre spawn smallmouth stuff with folks. Um, really anything. I mean, I've booked a, a dozen or so striper dates already for, for April and May and fair few summer days too.

So this is the time of year where, you know, I'm gonna get a lot of my, my regulars and, and folks I had to reschedule from last year on the calendar.

So if, if you're kind of sitting around and there's something that you might be interested in, you know, between now and next fall, I would, I'd get in touch because the calendar tends to get pretty thin pretty quick between now and like February.

Marvin Cash:

Yeah. And of course, I think no cicadas this year, right?

Matt Reilly:

No cicadas. Yeah. This is the only year, I think in the next 13 years that we're not gonna have a cicada periodical skate hatch anywhere.

So it, you know, as, as, as much as I love chasing those things, it'll be a little bit nice to have a, have a year off from, from driving myself into the ground and it'll just make it that much more special next time it comes around.

Marvin Cash:

Yeah, I think people don't appreciate that for you to guide that. You're kind of driving around all over creation trying to find the bugs to then put up, put them on the fish.

And it's not, you know, it's not like, meet me where I always like to fish this time of year and we'll go do our thing. You're like, you know, scouting and doing all kinds of stuff.

Matt Reilly:

Yeah, it's, I mean there's definitely a lot of front end work and it's, I don't know, to risk, to risk sounding, sounding arrogant.

It's, it's not that difficult once you're good at the process and understand it to, to, I mean, more or less pinpoint, you know, of, of like maybe three really solid hypotheses. You know, one or two or all of them are usually going to be, going to be correct.

And you can, you can do all that from, you know, from your, your bedroom if you, if you want to. The biggest challenge on my end is that if I'm taking people fishing, it's not just my time. That's, that's sacrificed, you know, if.

If one of those things doesn't work out. So I. I'll figure all this stuff out and then I will, you know, physically go, you know, kind of put.

Put flies on the water and boots on the ground, all those spots to. To confirm and verify before I. I really start taking anybody's money. Because you want to make sure that. That you got it all set.

And so, yeah, it's a. It's a fair bit of work. It'll be kind of nice to. To go straight from stripers back to, you know, smallmouth and muskies pretty smoothly.

But like I said, I'll definitely miss it.

Marvin Cash:

ow, also too, you know, early:

Matt Reilly:

Only thing I'm doing this year is the same show I did the last show I did two years ago in Cincinnati. Buckeye United Fly Fishers. I think it's the first Saturday in February. It's pretty, pretty cool little show up there. So I'm, I'm excited about that.

See some of the folks that I. I met that two years ago when I went, and hopefully some new folks, too.

Marvin Cash:

Yeah, well, very neat. Well, you know, I'm sure folks have it almost memorized at this point.

For folks that don't know what's the best way to reach out, get in touch, get on the books and all that kind of good stuff.

Matt Reilly:

Yeah, definitely through the website you can. Well, that's where all my contact info is. I love getting phone calls. Text messages are great, too. Emails are perfect.

mattreillyflyfishing.com got all of it. So just reach out however you feel best.

Marvin Cash:

Well, there you go. Well, listen, I want to wish everybody a happy New Year. Happy New Year, Matt.

Matt Reilly:

Hey, thanks, Marvin. Happy New Year.

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