Michelle Samson: 
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Welcome to Making it in Ontario, your window into what's next in
 
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 Ontario's manufacturing sector from the
 data driven researchers at the Trillium
 
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 Network for Advanced Manufacturing.
 
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 I'm Michelle Samson.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: And I'm Brendan Sweeney.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Alright, Brendan,
 we are going to talk today about
 
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 a recent data bulletin that the
 Trillium Network for Advanced
 
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 Manufacturing produced about canola.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Yeah.
 
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 About the economic contributions
 of canola to Canada's economy.
 
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 Michelle Samson: This would seem
 like an odd choice for the Trillium
 
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 Network for Advanced Manufacturing.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: It was an odd choice.
 
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 It was really to chime in on a
 narrative that's going around.
 
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 It was advanced by a number of folks,
 mostly in the prairies, including
 
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 Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.
 
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 And that narrative goes something like
 this: The canola industry apparently
 
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 contributes more to Canada's economy
 than the automotive, steel, and aluminum
 
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 and aluminum industries combined.
 
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 And these comments are in the context
 of ongoing trade disputes with China.
 
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 Canada puts tariffs on Chinese EVs.
 
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 China puts counter tariffs
 on Canadian canola.
 
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 And now we've got a dispute on our hands.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Yeah.
 
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 So I mean, data is Trillium's thing.
 
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 It is your thing.
 
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 So what did you make of those numbers?
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Scott Moe is dead wrong.
 
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 The report that came up with those numbers
 is flawed, really flawed, the idea that
 
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 that canola, which is not unimportant,
 but the idea that canola contributes more
 
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 to Canada's economy than auto, steel,
 and aluminum combined is laughable.
 
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 Laughable.
 
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 I mean, the idea, and we proved this
 out in this data bulletin, the idea
 
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 that canola contributes more than
 automotive alone is itself laughable.
 
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 So auto, steel, and aluminum?
 
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 No.
 
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 That dog won't hunt.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Yeah.
 
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 So how did this get on your radar?
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: So after a couple
 weeks at the cottage, I kind of
 
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 popped my head back up to speak with
 a journalist, Lorraine Sommerfeld,
 
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 who wrote something for driving.ca,
 
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 and that's out.
 
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 And that was the genesis of this, so I
 credit Lorraine for that because she kind
 
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 of told me some of the numbers in our
 discussion, you know, something like,
 
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 okay, $13 billion worth of canola exports.
 
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 $43 billion worth of GDP.
 
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 What?
 
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 That didn't make sense.
 
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 If it was the other way around, maybe
 it would've just been high, but it
 
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 would've, but to turn an export based
 industry, canola, that exports, you
 
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 know, $12 or $13 billion worth of goods
 every year into $43 or $44, whatever
 
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 they said, billion dollars worth of GDP?
 
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 That's just not right.
 
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 So, we started digging into the data and
 yeah, the canola numbers were a bit off.
 
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 Michelle Samson: It sounds like
 they were more than just a bit off.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Yeah, they were way off.
 
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 Way off.
 
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 Like the most off I've ever
 seen for these kind of numbers.
 
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 Michelle Samson: How does
 one get to be so off?
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Well, you use
 a really wacky methodology.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Hmm.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Instead
 of just going to the data.
 
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 Instead of just saying, okay, you
 know, StatsCan, tell me how many
 
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 people this industry employs.
 
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 StatsCan, tell me how much GDP
 it contributes to the economy.
 
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 Or even going to some of the
 companies on the processing side and
 
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 seeing how many people they employ.
 
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 'Cause they report that out
 to the government every year.
 
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 We did that too.
 
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 So you use a wacky, untested methodology
 rather than just using the actual numbers.
 
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 And then that just leads to errors
 compounding on top of errors, compounding
 
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 on top of errors, compounding on top
 of errors, and so on and so forth.
 
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 And you get a really, really
 high number, like $44 billion.
 
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 Michelle Samson: So if we wanna
 take a generous take on this,
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Mm-hmm.
 
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 Michelle Samson: You know, like
 maybe dig a little bit more into,
 
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 like, how they might have ended
 up choosing this methodology and
 
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 ending up with these numbers.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: So, one, I mean,
 I have to kind of step back and
 
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 say maybe they're not as familiar
 with the StatsCan data as we are.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Hmm.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Maybe they're not  as
 familiar with, I mean, the report was
 
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 written by a UK-based consulting company,
 
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 Michelle Samson: Hmm.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: GlobalData Plc, and
 maybe they're not familiar with Canada
 
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 to the degree that we are, and StatsCan,
 and systems of where you can find data.
 
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 Where companies have to report
 things to the federal government,
 
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 and then in those reports you can
 find out certain things about them,
 
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 like how many people they employ.
 
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 So maybe they just don't
 have access to that.
 
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 Maybe they did have access to that, and
 those numbers seemed a little light to
 
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 them for what they were being paid to do.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Hmm.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: And so they wanted
 to come up with better, quote
 
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 unquote, better numbers, right?
 
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 They wanted to really show the
 higher end, the theoretical
 
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 top end of these contributions.
 
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 And, I guess it, like, it's so, you
 know, when you do these things, is
 
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 there a little expectation that you
 exaggerate or that you, again, that you
 
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 might use the real high end of things?
 
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 Yeah.
 
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 Do you exaggerate on your CV?
 
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 Sure, a little bit.
 
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 It's expected, you're expected to do that.
 
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 But do you include a career on
 there that you've been working at
 
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 for 20 years that didn't exist?
 
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 No.
 
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 No, you don't do that.
 
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 I don't know much about dating
 profiles, but I imagine you have to
 
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 use a photo of you that's of you when
 you're younger, because photos of
 
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 you when you're older don't exist.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Can't argue on that.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Do you use a photo
 of you that's like two years younger?
 
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 Maybe.
 
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 Do you use a photo of you
 that's 22 years younger?
 
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 Probably not, right?
 
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 So anyway, these numbers
 is just a huge overreach.
 
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 Threw up all these red flags.
 
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 And when we dug in, we just started with,
 okay, let's find the direct contribution.
 
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 And we found for automotive, it's
 like well over 100,000 direct jobs,
 
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 and that's in vehicle assembly
 and parts manufacturing, and $18,
 
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 $19 billion worth of GDP directly.
 
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 Before we put multipliers onto it.
 
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 When we did that for canola, it was
 about, you know, we took the two
 
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 main value adding sides of canola.
 
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 Not the indirect, not the
 supply chain benefits, but the
 
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 two main value adding sides.
 
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 So we're doing an apples
 to apples kind of thing.
 
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 The crop production I think was about $4.5
 
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 billion dollars.
 
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 Okay.
 
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 That's a lot.
 
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 And the processing, 14 plants
 in Canada, including one in
 
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 Hamilton, including one in Windsor.
 
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 So 14 processing facilities in Canada,
 about like 1,500 employees, and maybe
 
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 $500 million contributions to to GDP.
 
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 So combined, you're looking at like $5
 billion, and, you know, 22,000 employees.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Big difference.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Well, I mean, there is
 a difference between those activities
 
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 and the total economic impact.
 
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 But going from $5 billion to $43
 billion in GDP, and going from 22,000
 
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 employees to 200,000 employees?
 
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 That's just not, that's not real.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Putting my economic
 development hat on, you know, it's always
 
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 nice when you have larger numbers to
 report or you can say that your economy or
 
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 this particular sector is really strong.
 
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 But that being used in a marketing
 context, while still not right and
 
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 not good if it's so inflated, this
 gets really dangerous when it's in
 
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 an advocacy point of view, right?
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Yeah, and I mean
 it's, well, when it's disingenuous.
 
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 I think that, you know, if I am Premier
 Moe, I'm having a conversation with a
 
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 number of people right now, including
 my staff, any economist that I have on
 
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 staff, and including the people who put
 this report in front of me, who put these
 
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 numbers in front of me, and saying like,
 Guys, you're making me look dumb here.
 
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 And at a time when we're
 trying to come together as one
 
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 country, this is not helping.
 
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 But I mean, Scott Moe didn't help himself
 by comparing the canola, I mean he kind
 
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 of started it, right, comparing the canola
 thing to automotive, steel, and aluminum.
 
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 And, you know, I think back to some
 of the conversations we had with David
 
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 Adams of Global Automakers of Canada
 where he talked about what industry
 
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 associations do, and sometimes what
 they do with Trillium, and that's,
 
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 you know, do some of this research.
 
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 One of the reasons is that, you know,
 a lot of industry associations, they'll
 
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 get someone like us to do the work
 because they just don't have the capacity
 
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 to do it or the expertise to do it.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Yeah.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: And similarly, they
 increasingly rely on us, just as
 
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 governments rely on them for this kind
 of work because a lot of governments
 
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 don't necessarily have the resources
 or the capabilities to do that.
 
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 Or even if they do, I mean, we
 know that the federal government
 
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 has certain capabilities.
 
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 They want to make sure
 things kind of line up.
 
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 They want to do the report, then have
 an independent third party do the
 
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 report and just make sure that they're
 within within a certain tolerance range.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Right.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: And I think in
 this case, you know, in early
 
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 conversations with stakeholders,
 there were a lot of comments to us
 
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 kind of like, Yeah, I looked at that.
 
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 I don't know how they came
 up with those numbers.
 
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 So thank you for adding
 a corrective to this,
 
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 Michelle Samson: Hmm.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: because we didn't
 think it was right, but it wasn't
 
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 really our space to call them out on it.
 
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 It was not.
 
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 So anyway, this is where I think we need
 to, whether it's today, whether it's
 
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 tomorrow, whether it's down the road,
 engage in conversations about, okay,
 
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 well what does advocacy look like and
 what does responsible advocacy look like?
 
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 Michelle Samson: Hmm.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Because what I think,
 you know, I think why we are here is
 
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 because of irresponsible advocacy.
 
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 I think I'd call it lavish exaggeration
 that went unchecked at every stage.
 
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 And we have at the Trillium Network
 not only been there to do that kind
 
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 of research, that economic impact
 research, but also help stakeholders,
 
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 help governments make sense of
 something somebody else wrote,
 
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 and they'll engage us to do that.
 
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 But this one, this particular
 data bulletin, just for the
 
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 record, nobody paid for it.
 
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 Nobody commissioned it.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Mmm.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: I mean, we just
 wrote it because that's what we do.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Yeah.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: And last week it started
 making the rounds on a couple media
 
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 outlets, links in the show notes, and, you
 know, haven't had much of a response from
 
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 the folks, the canola stakeholders yet.
 
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 A couple kind of prepackaged comments
 that frankly were a bit trite, and just
 
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 repeated what they did, where what we were
 saying was what they did was inaccurate.
 
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 Michelle Samson: Yeah, so we're
 recording this a few days early, but,
 
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 00:11:47  
 you know, if there are any updates
 between the time of recording and
 
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 when this is published, we'll include
 that in the show notes as well.
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Hmm.
 
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 00:11:55  
 And also I'd just like to say, response
 to our episode last week with Norman
 
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 Wickboldt of PowerCo, it was just great.
 
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 And, hey, maybe credit to us for
 being the first with a full length
 
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 podcast with PowerCo Canada so far.
 
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 So, that's awesome.
 
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 And a reminder that if you wanna
 meet some of the folks from PowerCo,
 
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 they're sponsoring the St.Thomas
 
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 Octoberfest in downtown St.
 
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 Thomas in about a week's time.
 
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 Links in the show notes.
 
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 Michelle Samson: See you there with, uh...
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Lederhosen?
 
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 Michelle Samson: Yes.
 
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 Lederhosen!
 
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 Brendan Sweeney: Lederhosen.
 
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 Which one though?
 
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 Which lederhosen do I wear
 for a September Octoberfest?
 
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 Tough decision.
 
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 Michelle Samson: You'll have
 to just head over to St.
 
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 Thomas to find out what
 Brendan is wearing.
 
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 New episodes of Making it in
 Ontario are published weekly.
 
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 Follow us now on Apple Podcasts or
 Spotify to make sure you don't miss any.
 
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 Making it in Ontario is an
 initiative of the Trillium Network
 
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 00:13:01  
 for Advanced Manufacturing.
 
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 It is produced by Storied Places Media.