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Data drought: navigating the economic fog
Episode 111 • 2nd December 2025 • The Weekly Fix • RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.
00:00:00 00:03:48

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Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores how the longest-ever government shutdown has led to a data backlog, intensifying bond market volatility and uncertainty surrounding December’s FOMC rate decision.

  • The 43-day government shutdown delayed critical economic data releases, distorting analysis and increasing market volatility as investors navigate incomplete information.
  • U.S. Treasury yields experienced sharp movements, closing above 4.05%, as markets priced in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
  • Investor tensions remain elevated amid rate-cut speculation, stock-market instability, and persistent macroeconomic ambiguity, driving interest in fixed-income securities.

Transcripts

Hello and welcome back to The Weekly Fix. My name is Mindy Gudmundson, and I am an Institutional Portfolio Manager with RBC’s BlueBay Fixed Income team.

Well, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history – 43 days - finally ended on November 12, and since then we have seen some agencies start to release delayed economic data, including September employment, retail sales, PPI (Producer Price Index), and inventories to name a few. Some previously planned data releases (especially for October) are being consolidated or canceled, creating a backlog of critical updates that risks distorting analysis. This data void has forced investors and policymakers to navigate with incomplete information, and the irregular cadence of data releases ahead may amplify market volatility.

icipated economic momentum in:

This week’s bond market volatility underscored investor tension between rate-cut optimism and macroeconomic uncertainty. With yields now firmly back over 4%, borrowing costs remain elevated, and fixed-income securities continue to draw interest as potential sources of stable return amid the recent stock-market uncertainty.

Looking ahead, markets will navigate a dual pull: expectations for further central bank easing (supporting bond prices) versus supply pressures and growth ambiguity (which could push yields higher). We’ll be watching closely as new data trickles in.

Thanks for joining us today. We hope you had an enjoyable Thanksgiving holiday and have a great week ahead of you.

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